INCCA: Integrated Climate and Carbon
The INCCA (Integrated Climate and Carbon) initiative will develop and apply the ability to simulate the fate and climate impact of fossil fuel-derived carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and aerosols on a global scale. Coupled climate and carbon cycle modeling like that proposed for INCCA is required to understand and predict the future environmental impacts of fossil fuel burning. At present, atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations are prescribed, not simulated, in large climate models. Credible simulations of the entire climate system, however, need to predict time-evolving atmospheric greenhouse forcing using anthropogenic emissions as the fundamental input. Predicting atmospheric COS concentrations represents a substantial scientific advance because there are large natural sources and sinks of carbon that are likely to change as a result of climate change. Both terrestrial (e.g., vegetation on land) and oceanic components of the carbon cycle are known to be sensitive to climate change. Estimates of the amount of man-made CO{sub 2} that will accumulate in the atmosphere depend on understanding the carbon cycle. For this reason, models that use CO{sub 2} emissions, not prescribed atmospheric concentrations, as fundamental inputs are required to directly address greenhouse-related questions of interest to policymakers. INCCA is uniquely positioned to make rapid progress in this high-priority area of global change modeling and prediction because we can leverage previous and ongoing LLNL developments, and use existing component models that are well-developed and published. The need for a vastly improved carbon dioxide prediction capability is appreciated by the DOE. As the US Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI) progresses, we expect the DOE will emphasize the carbon cycle as the next major department-level earth science focus. INCCA will position LLNL for substantial additional funding as this new focus is realized. In the limited time since our LDRD funding was first received (1 November 2000) we have made good progress in acquisition and testing of component models, applications of the terrestrial biosphere model, enhancements to the ocean carbon cycle model and development of the fossil fuel aerosol model.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- US Department of Energy (US)
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-48
- OSTI ID:
- 15005710
- Report Number(s):
- UCRL-ID-143593; TRN: US200324%%80
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: PBD: 13 Mar 2001
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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