Yearly report for the period Jan. 2018 – Feb. 2019 IC Project: w17_faultprediction “Critical Stress in Earth”
The consequence of earthquake is usually catastrophic. Currently, we cannot determine when a fault is approaching failure due to either anthropogenic activities or tectonic movement. In an anthropogenically perturbed setting, the rate of physical changes on faults far exceeds most natural processes with currently unpredictable and unmeasurable results. In a tectonic setting we generally do not know where a fault is in the earthquake cycle beyond noting how long has passed since the last rupture, which is itself sometimes unknown. The Laboratory has therefore funded a multi million multi-year LDRD-DR program that comprises experiments, numerical modeling, and machine learning in order to develop and test a highly novel approach to probe the earthquake cycle and in particular, to detect and locate stressed faults that are approaching failure. For this program, modeling of a series of sheared granular layers undergoing stick-slip behavior using the EES-17’s Combined Finite-Discrete Element Method (FDEM) based code HOSS (Hybrid Optimization Software Suite) plays a pivotal role since numerical simulations of granular fault gouge allow for analysis of the mechanical behavior of the system at a level of spatial and temporal resolution not accessible experimentally, and also offer the possibility of identifying the most important parameters governing earthquake dynamics. The simulated data also provide very detailed stress, strain and motion information for machine learning purpose to predict earthquake. The code – HOSS – has been developed in Geophysics Group in LANL during the past ten years and is used to simulate the stick-slip behavior of granular fault gouge. One of the key feature of HOSS is that it is superior to pure finite element method and discrete element method and can provide very detailed evolvement information of granular fault gouge. Additionally, its parallel computing capability makes large scale earthquake gouge simulation possible. Taking these facts into account, and also because few other fully parallel FDEM code exists, this IC project allows LANL to stay at the forefront of earthquake gouge and granular material simulation in the world.
- Research Organization:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
- DOE Contract Number:
- 89233218CNA000001
- OSTI ID:
- 1498004
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-19-21769
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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