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Title: Impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial carbon cycle constrained by bottom-up and top-down approaches

Abstract

Evaluating the response of the land carbon sink to the anomalies in temperature and drought imposed by El Niño events provides insights into the present-day carbon cycle and its climate-driven variability. It is also a necessary step to build confidence in terrestrial ecosystems models' response to the warming and drying stresses expected in the future over many continents, and particularly in the tropics. Here we present an in-depth analysis of the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to the 2015/2016 El Niño that imposed extreme warming and dry conditions in the tropics and other sensitive regions. First, we provide a synthesis of the spatio-temporal evolution of anomalies in net land–atmosphere CO 2 fluxes estimated by two in situ measurements based on atmospheric inversions and 16 land-surface models (LSMs) from TRENDYv6. Simulated changes in ecosystem productivity, decomposition rates and fire emissions are also investigated. Inversions and LSMs generally agree on the decrease and subsequent recovery of the land sink in response to the onset, peak and demise of El Niño conditions and point to the decreased strength of the land carbon sink: by 0.4–0.7 PgC yr –1 (inversions) and by 1.0 PgC yr –1 (LSMs) during 2015/2016. As a result, LSMmore » simulations indicate that a decrease in productivity, rather than increase in respiration, dominated the net biome productivity anomalies in response to ENSO throughout the tropics, mainly associated with prolonged drought conditions.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [7];  [8];  [8];  [9];  [10]; ORCiD logo [7];  [11];  [12];  [13];  [12];  [14];  [15] more »;  [3];  [16];  [17];  [18]; ORCiD logo [19];  [10];  [20];  [21];  [8];  [8];  [22];  [23];  [20];  [19];  [24];  [8] « less
  1. Ludwig Maximilians Univ. Munich, Munich (Germany); Lab. des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
  2. Univ. of Exeter, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  3. Boston Univ., Boston, MA (United States)
  4. Univ. de Toulouse, Toulouse (France)
  5. Centre Bordeaux Aquitaine, Villenave d'Ornon (France)
  6. Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, BC (Canada)
  7. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT (Australia)
  8. Lab. des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
  9. Wuhan Univ., Wuhan (People's Republic of China)
  10. CNRS/Meteo-France/Univ. Federale de Toulouse, Toulouse (France)
  11. Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States)
  12. Univ. of Bern, Bern (Switzerland)
  13. Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Tokyo (Japan)
  14. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  15. Environment and Climate Change Canada, Downsview, ON (Canada)
  16. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
  17. Ludwig Maximilians Univ. Munich, Munich (Germany); Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
  18. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)
  19. Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena (Germany)
  20. Auburn Univ., Auburn, AL (United States)
  21. Univ. Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels (Belgium)
  22. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  23. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  24. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (People's Republic of China)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1484986
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series B: Biological Sciences
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 373; Journal Issue: 1760; Journal ID: ISSN 0962-8436
Publisher:
The Royal Society Publishing
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; carbon cycle; El Nino/Southern Oscillation; land-surface models; atmospheric inversions

Citation Formats

Bastos, Ana, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Sitch, Stephen, Chen, Chi, Mialon, Arnaud, Wigneron, Jean -Pierre, Arora, Vivek K., Briggs, Peter R., Canadell, Josep G., Ciais, Philippe, Chevallier, Frédéric, Cheng, Lei, Delire, Christine, Haverd, Vanessa, Jain, Atul K., Joos, Fortunat, Kato, Etsushi, Lienert, Sebastian, Lombardozzi, Danica, Melton, Joe R., Myneni, Ranga, Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Pongratz, Julia, Poulter, Benjamin, Rödenbeck, Christian, Séférian, Roland, Tian, Hanqin, van Eck, Christel, Viovy, Nicolas, Vuichard, Nicolas, Walker, Anthony P., Wiltshire, Andy, Yang, Jia, Zaehle, Sönke, Zeng, Ning, and Zhu, Dan. Impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial carbon cycle constrained by bottom-up and top-down approaches. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1098/rstb.2017.0304.
Bastos, Ana, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Sitch, Stephen, Chen, Chi, Mialon, Arnaud, Wigneron, Jean -Pierre, Arora, Vivek K., Briggs, Peter R., Canadell, Josep G., Ciais, Philippe, Chevallier, Frédéric, Cheng, Lei, Delire, Christine, Haverd, Vanessa, Jain, Atul K., Joos, Fortunat, Kato, Etsushi, Lienert, Sebastian, Lombardozzi, Danica, Melton, Joe R., Myneni, Ranga, Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Pongratz, Julia, Poulter, Benjamin, Rödenbeck, Christian, Séférian, Roland, Tian, Hanqin, van Eck, Christel, Viovy, Nicolas, Vuichard, Nicolas, Walker, Anthony P., Wiltshire, Andy, Yang, Jia, Zaehle, Sönke, Zeng, Ning, & Zhu, Dan. Impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial carbon cycle constrained by bottom-up and top-down approaches. United States. doi:10.1098/rstb.2017.0304.
Bastos, Ana, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Sitch, Stephen, Chen, Chi, Mialon, Arnaud, Wigneron, Jean -Pierre, Arora, Vivek K., Briggs, Peter R., Canadell, Josep G., Ciais, Philippe, Chevallier, Frédéric, Cheng, Lei, Delire, Christine, Haverd, Vanessa, Jain, Atul K., Joos, Fortunat, Kato, Etsushi, Lienert, Sebastian, Lombardozzi, Danica, Melton, Joe R., Myneni, Ranga, Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Pongratz, Julia, Poulter, Benjamin, Rödenbeck, Christian, Séférian, Roland, Tian, Hanqin, van Eck, Christel, Viovy, Nicolas, Vuichard, Nicolas, Walker, Anthony P., Wiltshire, Andy, Yang, Jia, Zaehle, Sönke, Zeng, Ning, and Zhu, Dan. Mon . "Impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial carbon cycle constrained by bottom-up and top-down approaches". United States. doi:10.1098/rstb.2017.0304. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1484986.
@article{osti_1484986,
title = {Impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial carbon cycle constrained by bottom-up and top-down approaches},
author = {Bastos, Ana and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Sitch, Stephen and Chen, Chi and Mialon, Arnaud and Wigneron, Jean -Pierre and Arora, Vivek K. and Briggs, Peter R. and Canadell, Josep G. and Ciais, Philippe and Chevallier, Frédéric and Cheng, Lei and Delire, Christine and Haverd, Vanessa and Jain, Atul K. and Joos, Fortunat and Kato, Etsushi and Lienert, Sebastian and Lombardozzi, Danica and Melton, Joe R. and Myneni, Ranga and Nabel, Julia E. M. S. and Pongratz, Julia and Poulter, Benjamin and Rödenbeck, Christian and Séférian, Roland and Tian, Hanqin and van Eck, Christel and Viovy, Nicolas and Vuichard, Nicolas and Walker, Anthony P. and Wiltshire, Andy and Yang, Jia and Zaehle, Sönke and Zeng, Ning and Zhu, Dan},
abstractNote = {Evaluating the response of the land carbon sink to the anomalies in temperature and drought imposed by El Niño events provides insights into the present-day carbon cycle and its climate-driven variability. It is also a necessary step to build confidence in terrestrial ecosystems models' response to the warming and drying stresses expected in the future over many continents, and particularly in the tropics. Here we present an in-depth analysis of the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to the 2015/2016 El Niño that imposed extreme warming and dry conditions in the tropics and other sensitive regions. First, we provide a synthesis of the spatio-temporal evolution of anomalies in net land–atmosphere CO2 fluxes estimated by two in situ measurements based on atmospheric inversions and 16 land-surface models (LSMs) from TRENDYv6. Simulated changes in ecosystem productivity, decomposition rates and fire emissions are also investigated. Inversions and LSMs generally agree on the decrease and subsequent recovery of the land sink in response to the onset, peak and demise of El Niño conditions and point to the decreased strength of the land carbon sink: by 0.4–0.7 PgC yr–1 (inversions) and by 1.0 PgC yr–1 (LSMs) during 2015/2016. As a result, LSM simulations indicate that a decrease in productivity, rather than increase in respiration, dominated the net biome productivity anomalies in response to ENSO throughout the tropics, mainly associated with prolonged drought conditions.},
doi = {10.1098/rstb.2017.0304},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series B: Biological Sciences},
issn = {0962-8436},
number = 1760,
volume = 373,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {10}
}

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Figures / Tables:

Table 1 Table 1: Global carbon budget during 2015, 2016 from the latest Global Carbon Project global carbon budget estimates (GCB2017v1.2, [1]). Annual atmospheric CO2 growth rate (GATM), fossil fuel and LUC emissions (EFF and ELUC, respectively) and the total sinks partitioned into ocean and land fluxes. The numbers in brackets indicatemore » the corresponding anomaly relative to the previous 5-year period. The land sink is estimated here as the residual from the global carbon budget (i.e. EFF + ELUC - GATM - O). Fire emission anomalies from GFED4.1s (1997–2016) are shown for comparison with the values in the terrestrial sink.« less

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Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.