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Title: The Role of Input Assumptions and Model Structures in Projections of Variable Renewable Energy: A Multi-Model Perspective of the U.S. Electricity System

Journal Article · · Energy Economics
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  1. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
  2. Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA (United States)
  3. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States)
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Recent wind and solar deployment in the United States has grown at unprecedented rates, but the extent to which this growth will continue is a key question. Energy-economic planning models are often used to develop future projections of these technologies, and although it is well-understood that model outcomes are sensitive to assumptions about technology developments and market conditions, it is less clear how underlying model structures might impact outcomes. For wind and solar technologies, model structures might be an even larger driver due to the complexity required to represent their variability, uncertainty, and location-dependence. Here, we apply three state-of-the-art electric sector planning models to evaluate variable renewable generation under different conditions with both harmonized and native input assumptions to isolate the impact that model structures might have on deployment outcomes. We find growth in wind and solar deployment in all models under a business-as-usual scenario (without new policies), where the median value for variable renewable energy generation share is found to be 27% by 2050 - but with a wide range of estimates (18-43%), types of renewable technologies deployed, and regional distributions across models. With harmonized assumptions about technology costs and market conditions the range narrows slightly, but a large range in penetration outcomes remains (24-41% by 2050) suggesting that model representations play significant roles in projections of future wind and solar deployment. We also assess the implications of achieving 55% wind and solar penetration by 2050 - to assess potential challenges at higher penetration levels - and the magnitude of variable generation under a carbon-constrained future. Finally, we identify research needs to better assess the future deployment of variable renewable energy.

Research Organization:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Strategic Programs (EE-SP); USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308; EE0007878
OSTI ID:
1484436
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1642267
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-6A20-70629
Journal Information:
Energy Economics, Vol. 76, Issue C; ISSN 0140-9883
Publisher:
ElsevierCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Cited By (3)

Technology, Policy, and Market Drivers of (and Barriers to) Advanced Nuclear Reactor Deployment in the United States After 2030 journal March 2019
Economic drivers of wind and solar penetration in the US journal November 2019
Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050 journal January 2020

Figures / Tables (29)

Table 1(p. 14)table Table 1
Figure 1(p. 15)figure Figure 1
Figure 2(p. 19)figure Figure 2
Figure 3(p. 22)figure Figure 3
Figure 4(p. 27)figure Figure 4
Figure 5(p. 28)figure Figure 5
Figure 6(p. 30)figure Figure 6
Figure 7(p. 31)figure Figure 7
Supplementary Table 1(p. 40)figure Supplementary Table 1
Supplementary Table 2(p. 41)figure Supplementary Table 2
Supplementary Table 3(p. 42)figure Supplementary Table 3
Supplementary Table 4(p. 43)figure Supplementary Table 4
Supplementary Figure 1(p. 44)figure Supplementary Figure 1
Supplementary Figure 2(p. 45)figure Supplementary Figure 2
Supplementary Figure 3(p. 46)figure Supplementary Figure 3
Supplementary Figure 4(p. 47)figure Supplementary Figure 4
Supplementary Figure 5(p. 48)figure Supplementary Figure 5
Supplementary Figure 6(p. 48)figure Supplementary Figure 6
Supplementary Figure 7(p. 49)figure Supplementary Figure 7
Supplementary Figure 8(p. 50)figure Supplementary Figure 8
Supplementary Figure 9(p. 51)figure Supplementary Figure 9
Supplementary Figure 10(p. 52)figure Supplementary Figure 10
Supplementary Figure 11(p. 53)figure Supplementary Figure 11
Supplementary Figure 12(p. 54)figure Supplementary Figure 12
Supplementary Figure 13(p. 54)figure Supplementary Figure 13
Supplementary Figure 15(p. 56)figure Supplementary Figure 15
Supplementary Figure 16(p. 57)figure Supplementary Figure 16
Supplementary Figure 17(p. 57)figure Supplementary Figure 17
Supplementary Figure 18(p. 58)figure Supplementary Figure 18

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