Regional changes in streamflow after a megathrust earthquake

Mohr, Christian H.; Manga, Michael; Wang, Chi-Yuen; Korup, Oliver

doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2016.11.013

Regional changes in streamflow after a megathrust earthquake

Journal Article · Wed Nov 23 23:00:00 EST 2016 · Earth and Planetary Science Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2016.11.013· OSTI ID:1479293

Mohr, Christian H. ^[1]; Manga, Michael ^[2]; Wang, Chi-Yuen ^[2]; Korup, Oliver ^[1]

Univ. of Potsdam (Germany)
Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

Moderate to large earthquakes can increase the amount of water feeding stream flows, mobilizing excess water from deep groundwater, shallow groundwater, or the vadose zone. Here we examine the regional pattern of streamflow response to the Maule M8.8 earthquake across Chile's diverse topographic and hydro-climatic gradients. We combine streamflow analyses with groundwater flow modeling and a random forest classifier, and find that, after the earthquake, at least 85 streams had a change in flow. Discharge mostly increased (n=78) shortly after the earthquake, liberating an excess water volume of >1.1 km3, which is the largest ever reported following an earthquake. Several catchments had increased discharge of >50 mm, locally exceeding seasonal streamflow discharge under undisturbed conditions. Our modeling results favor enhanced vertical permeability induced by dynamic strain as the most probable process explaining the observed changes at the regional scale. Supporting this interpretation, our random forest classification identifies peak ground velocity and elevation extremes as most important for predicting streamflow response. Given the mean recurrence interval of ~25 yr for >M8.0 earthquakes along the Peru–Chile Trench, our observations highlight the role of earthquakes in the regional water cycle, especially in arid environments.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1479293

Journal Information:: Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Journal Name: Earth and Planetary Science Letters Journal Issue: C Vol. 458; ISSN 0012-821X

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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