A Methodology for Quantifying Reliability Benefits From Improved Solar Power Forecasting in Multi-Timescale Power System Operations
Solar power forecasting improvements are mainly evaluated by statistical and economic metrics, and the practical reliability benefits of these forecasting enhancements have not yet been well quantified. This paper aims to quantify reliability benefits from solar power forecasting improvements. To systematically analyze the relationship between solar power forecasting improvements and reliability performance in power system operations, an expected synthetic reliability (ESR) metric is proposed to integrate state-of-the-art independent reliability metrics. The absolute value and standard deviation of area control errors (ACE), and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation Control Performance Standard 2 (CPS2) score are calculated through the multi-timescale scheduling simulation, including the day-ahead unit commitment (DU), real-time unit commitment (RU), real-time economic dispatch (RE), automatic generation control (AGC) sub-models. The absolute area control error in energy (AACEE), CPS2 violations, CPS2 score, and standard deviation of the raw ACE are all calculated and combined as the ESR metric. Numerical simulations show that the reliability benefits of multi-timescale power system operations are significantly increased due to the improved solar power forecasts.
- Research Organization:
- National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Solar Energy Technologies Office
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC36-08GO28308
- OSTI ID:
- 1479264
- Report Number(s):
- NREL/JA-5D00-70184
- Journal Information:
- IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, Vol. 9, Issue 6; ISSN 1949-3053
- Publisher:
- IEEE
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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