Greening of the land surface in the world’s cold regions consistent with recent warming

Keenan, T. F.; Riley, W. J.

doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0258-y

Greening of the land surface in the world’s cold regions consistent with recent warming

Journal Article · Mon Aug 20 00:00:00 UTC 2018 · Nature Climate Change

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0258-y· OSTI ID:1477369

^[1]; Riley, W. J. ^[2]

Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Global ecosystem function is highly dependent on climate and atmospheric composition, yet ecosystem responses to environmental changes remain uncertain. Cold, high-latitude ecosystems in particular have experienced rapid warming, with poorly understood consequences. Here in this study, we use a satellite-observed proxy for vegetation cover—the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation—to identify a decline in the temperature limitation of vegetation in global ecosystems between 1982 and 2012. We quantify the spatial functional response of maximum annual vegetation cover to temperature and show that the observed temporal decline in temperature limitation is consistent with expectations based on observed recent warming. An ensemble of Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) mischaracterized the functional response to temperature, leading to a large overestimation of vegetation cover in cold regions. We identify a 16.4% decline in the area of vegetated land that is limited by temperature over the past three decades, and suggest an expected large decline in temperature limitation under future warming scenarios. Finally, this rapid observed and expected decline in temperature limitation highlights the need for an improved understanding of other limitations to vegetation growth in cold regions, such as soil characteristics, species migration, recruitment, establishment, competition and community dynamics.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1477369

Journal Information:: Nature Climate Change, Journal Name: Nature Climate Change Journal Issue: 9 Vol. 8; ISSN 1758-678X

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (32)

On the relationship between FAPAR and NDVI Myneni, R. B.; Williams, D. L. Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 49, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1016/0034-4257(94)90016-7	journal	September 1994
Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity Burrows, Michael T.; Schoeman, David S.; Richardson, Anthony J. Nature, Vol. 507, Issue 7493 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12976	journal	February 2014
Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake Keenan, Trevor F.; Prentice, I. Colin; Canadell, Josep G. Nature Communications, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13428	journal	November 2016
Arctic amplification dominated by temperature feedbacks in contemporary climate models Pithan, Felix; Mauritsen, Thorsten Nature Geoscience, Vol. 7, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2071	journal	February 2014
Velocity of change in vegetation productivity over northern high latitudes Huang, Mengtian; Piao, Shilong; Janssens, Ivan A. Nature Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 1, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-017-0328-y	journal	October 2017
Permafrost carbon−climate feedback is sensitive to deep soil carbon decomposability but not deep soil nitrogen dynamics Koven, Charles D.; Lawrence, David M.; Riley, William J. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1415123112	journal	March 2015
Attribution of seasonal leaf area index trends in the northern latitudes with “optimally” integrated ecosystem models Zhu, Zaichun; Piao, Shilong; Lian, Xu Global Change Biology, Vol. 23, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13723	journal	May 2017
Satellites reveal contrasting responses of regional climate to the widespread greening of Earth Forzieri, Giovanni; Alkama, Ramdane; Miralles, Diego G. Science, Vol. 356, Issue 6343 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aal1727	journal	May 2017
Responses of Tundra Plants to Experimental Warming: Meta-Analysis of the International Tundra Experiment Arft, A. M.; Walker, M. D.; Gurevitch, J. Ecological Monographs, Vol. 69, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.2307/2657227	journal	November 1999
Global Data Sets of Vegetation Leaf Area Index (LAI)3g and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR)3g Derived from Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI3g) for the Period 1981 to 2011 Zhu, Zaichun; Bi, Jian; Pan, Yaozhong Remote Sensing, Vol. 5, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.3390/rs5020927	journal	February 2013
Evaluation of Land Surface Models in Reproducing Satellite Derived Leaf Area Index over the High-Latitude Northern Hemisphere. Part II: Earth System Models Anav, Alessandro; Murray-Tortarolo, Guillermo; Friedlingstein, Pierre Remote Sensing, Vol. 5, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.3390/rs5083637	journal	July 2013
Evaluation of Land Surface Models in Reproducing Satellite-Derived LAI over the High-Latitude Northern Hemisphere. Part I: Uncoupled DGVMs Murray-Tortarolo, Guillermo; Anav, Alessandro; Friedlingstein, Pierre Remote Sensing, Vol. 5, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.3390/rs5104819	journal	October 2013
Projections of leaf area index in earth system models Mahowald, Natalie; Lo, Fiona; Zheng, Yun Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-211-2016	journal	January 2016
Analysis of trends in fused AVHRR and MODIS NDVI data for 1982-2006: Indication for a CO ₂ fertilization effect in global vegetation : TRENDS IN NDVI DATA Los, S. O. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 27, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/gbc.20027	journal	April 2013
Impact of CO ₂ fertilization on maximum foliage cover across the globe's warm, arid environments : CO Donohue, Randall J.; Roderick, Michael L.; McVicar, Tim R. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50563	journal	June 2013
Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations - the CRU TS3.10 Dataset: UPDATED HIGH-RESOLUTION GRIDS OF MONTHLY CLIMATIC OBSERVATIONS Harris, I.; Jones, P. D.; Osborn, T. J. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 34, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711	journal	May 2013
Analysis of monotonic greening and browning trends from global NDVI time-series de Jong, Rogier; de Bruin, Sytze; de Wit, Allard Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 115, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2010.10.011	journal	February 2011
Evaluating temporal consistency of long-term global NDVI datasets for trend analysis Tian, Feng; Fensholt, Rasmus; Verbesselt, Jan Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 163 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2015.03.031	journal	June 2015
Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991 Myneni, R. B.; Keeling, C. D.; Tucker, C. J. Nature, Vol. 386, Issue 6626 https://doi.org/10.1038/386698a0	journal	April 1997
Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summer warming Elmendorf, Sarah C.; Henry, Gregory H. R.; Hollister, Robert D. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1465	journal	April 2012
Climate sensitivity of shrub growth across the tundra biome Myers-Smith, Isla H.; Elmendorf, Sarah C.; Beck, Pieter S. A. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2697	journal	July 2015
Reduced streamflow in water-stressed climates consistent with CO2 effects on vegetation Ukkola, Anna M.; Prentice, I. Colin; Keenan, Trevor F. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2831	journal	October 2015
Greening of the Earth and its drivers Zhu, Zaichun; Piao, Shilong; Myneni, Ranga B. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3004	journal	April 2016
Human-induced greening of the northern extratropical land surface Mao, Jiafu; Ribes, Aurélien; Yan, Binyan Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3056	journal	June 2016
Climate mitigation from vegetation biophysical feedbacks during the past three decades Zeng, Zhenzhong; Piao, Shilong; Li, Laurent Z. X. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3299	journal	May 2017
Dynamics of aboveground phytomass of the circumpolar Arctic tundra during the past three decades Epstein, Howard E.; Raynolds, Martha K.; Walker, Donald A. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/015506	journal	January 2012
Changing seasonality of panarctic tundra vegetation in relationship to climatic variables Bhatt, Uma S.; Walker, Donald A.; Raynolds, Martha K. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6b0b	journal	May 2017
21st century tundra shrubification could enhance net carbon uptake of North America Arctic tundra under an RCP8.5 climate trajectory Mekonnen, Zelalem A.; Riley, William J.; Grant, Robert F. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf28	journal	May 2018
Spatial heterogeneity of tundra vegetation response to recent temperature changes Jia, Gensuo J.; Epstein, Howard E.; Walker, Donald A. Global Change Biology, Vol. 12, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01079.x	journal	January 2006
Terrestrial biosphere models underestimate photosynthetic capacity and CO ₂ assimilation in the Arctic Rogers, Alistair; Serbin, Shawn P.; Ely, Kim S. New Phytologist, Vol. 216, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.14740	journal	September 2017
Temperature and Snow-Mediated Moisture Controls of Summer Photosynthetic Activity in Northern Terrestrial Ecosystems between 1982 and 2011 Barichivich, Jonathan; Briffa, Keith; Myneni, Ranga Remote Sensing, Vol. 6, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.3390/rs6021390	journal	February 2014
Global Carbon Budget 2016 Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G. Earth System Science Data, Vol. 8, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016	journal	January 2016

Cited By (4)

Vegetation expansion in the subnival Hindu Kush Himalaya Anderson, Karen; Fawcett, Dominic; Cugulliere, Anthony Global Change Biology, Vol. 26, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14919	journal	January 2020
Preface: Climate Change Impact on Plant Ecology Vitale, Marcello; Collalti, Alessio Climate, Vol. 8, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8050059	journal	April 2020
Towards a global understanding of vegetation–climate dynamics at multiple timescales Linscheid, Nora; Estupinan-Suarez, Lina M.; Brenning, Alexander Biogeosciences, Vol. 17, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-945-2020	journal	January 2020
Summary and synthesis of Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) research in the interior of western Canada – Part 2: Future change in cryosphere, vegetation, and hydrology DeBeer, Chris M.; Wheater, Howard S.; Pomeroy, John W. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 25, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1849-2021	journal	April 2021

Similar Records

Increasing evapotranspiration decouples the positive correlation between vegetation cover and warming in the Tibetan plateau

Journal Article · Fri Sep 23 00:00:00 UTC 2022 · Frontiers in Plant Science · OSTI ID:1904737

Shallow soils are warmer under trees and tall shrubs across Arctic and Boreal ecosystems

Journal Article · Fri Dec 18 00:00:00 UTC 2020 · Environmental Research Letters · OSTI ID:1712723

Experimental Whole-Ecosystem Warming Enables Novel Estimation of Snow Cover and Depth Sensitivities to Temperature, and Quantification of the Snow-Albedo Feedback Effect

Journal Article · Fri Mar 15 00:00:00 UTC 2024 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences · OSTI ID:2476615

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
biogeochemistry
ecosystem ecology
environmental impact
phenology

Greening of the land surface in the world’s cold regions consistent with recent warming

Citation Formats

References (32)

Cited By (4)

Similar Records

Related Subjects