The potential of agricultural land management to contribute to lower global surface temperatures

Mayer, Allegra; Hausfather, Zeke; Jones, Andrew D.; Silver, Whendee L.

doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaq0932

The potential of agricultural land management to contribute to lower global surface temperatures

Journal Article · Wed Aug 29 00:00:00 EDT 2018 · Science Advances

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaq0932· OSTI ID:1477366

^[1]; Hausfather, Zeke ^[2]; ^[3]; ^[2]

Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); DOE/OSTI
Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) combined with emission reduction is necessary to keep climate warming below the internationally agreed upon 2°C target. Soil organic carbon sequestration through agricultural management has been proposed as a means to lower atmospheric CO₂ concentration, but the magnitude needed to meaningfully lower temperature is unknown. We show that sequestration of 0.68 Pg C year^-1 for 85 years could lower global temperature by 0.1°C in 2100 when combined with a low emission trajectory [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6]. This value is potentially achievable using existing agricultural management approaches, without decreasing land area for food production. Existing agricultural mitigation approaches could lower global temperature by up to 0.26°C under RCP 2.6 or as much as 25% of remaining warming to 2°C. This declines to 0.14°C under RCP 8.5. Results were sensitive to assumptions regarding the duration of carbon sequestration rates, which is poorly constrained by data. Results provide a framework for the potential role of agricultural soil organic carbon sequestration in climate change mitigation.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1477366

Journal Information:: Science Advances, Journal Name: Science Advances Journal Issue: 8 Vol. 4; ISSN 2375-2548

Publisher:: AAASCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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