Decision Trees for Analysis of Strategies to Deter Limited Nuclear Use in a Generic Scenario
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
We assert that analysis of a decision tree model can reveal key insights for deterring limited nuclear use in a conventional conflict. To illustrate the method, we develop a decision analysis model to explore the choices an attacker would make and how they can be influenced by his perceptions of the defender’s capabilities and potential responses. Sensitivity analysis with the model can provide insights into strategies and actions the defender might take in order to influence the choices the attacker would make. This methodology is widely applicable and could provide insight into a variety of scenarios.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC52-07NA27344
- OSTI ID:
- 1477147
- Report Number(s):
- LLNL-TR--759558; 947404
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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