Considerable contribution of the Montreal Protocol to declining greenhouse gas emissions from the United States

Hu, Lei; Montzka, Stephen A.; Lehman, Scott J.; Godwin, David S.; Miller, Benjamin R.; Andrews, Arlyn E.; Thoning, Kirk; Miller, John B.; Sweeney, Colm; Siso, Caroline; Elkins, James W.; Hall, Bradley D.; Mondeel, Debra J.; Nance, David; Nehrkorn, Thomas; Mountain, Marikate; Fischer, Marc L.; Biraud, Sébastien C.; Chen, Huilin; Tans, Pieter P.

doi:10.1002/2017GL074388

Considerable contribution of the Montreal Protocol to declining greenhouse gas emissions from the United States

Journal Article · Wed Aug 16 00:00:00 EDT 2017 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074388· OSTI ID:1476525

Hu, Lei ^[1]; ^[2]; Lehman, Scott J. ^[3]; Godwin, David S. ^[4]; ^[1]; ^[2]; Thoning, Kirk ^[2]; ^[2]; ^[1]; Siso, Caroline ^[1]; Elkins, James W. ^[2]; Hall, Bradley D. ^[2]; Mondeel, Debra J. ^[1]; Nance, David ^[1]; ^[5]; Mountain, Marikate ^[5]; ^[6]; ^[7]; ^[8]; ^[2]

Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States). Earth System Research Lab., Global Monitoring Division
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States). Earth System Research Lab., Global Monitoring Division
Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Inst. of Arctic and Alpine Research
US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA),Washington, DC (United States). Stratospheric Protection Division, Office of Atmospheric Programs, Office of Air and Radiation
Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Lexington, MA (United States)
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Technologies Area
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth and Environmental Sciences Area
Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES); Univ. of Groningen (Netherlands). Centre for Isotope Research

Ozone depleting substances (ODSs) controlled by the Montreal Protocol are potent greenhouse gases (GHGs), as are their substitutes, the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Here we provide for the first time a comprehensive estimate of U.S. emissions of ODSs and HFCs based on precise measurements in discrete air samples from across North America and in the remote atmosphere. Derived emissions show spatial and seasonal variations qualitatively consistent with known uses and largely confirm U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) national emissions inventories for most gases. The measurement-based results further indicate a substantial decline of ODS emissions from 2008 to 2014, equivalent to ~50% of the CO₂-equivalent decline in combined emissions of CO₂ and all other long-lived GHGs inventoried by the EPA for the same period. Total estimated CO₂-equivalent emissions of HFCs were comparable to the sum of ODS emissions in 2014, but can be expected to decline in the future in response to recent policy measures.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1476525

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1374927

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 15 Vol. 44; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (39)

Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing Rigby, M.; Prinn, R. G.; O'Doherty, S. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 7, p. 2623-2630 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL059099	journal	April 2014
U.S. emissions of HFC-134a derived for 2008-2012 from an extensive flask-air sampling network: US emissions of HFC-134a Hu, Lei; Montzka, Stephen A.; Miller, John B. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 120, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022617	journal	January 2015
The production and release to the atmosphere of CCl3F and CCl2F2 (chlorofluorocarbons CFC 11 and CFC 12) Gamlen, P. H.; Lane, B. C.; Midgley, P. M. Atmospheric Environment (1967), Vol. 20, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1016/0004-6981(86)90139-3	journal	January 1986
The production and release to the atmosphere of CCl3F and CCl2F2 (chlorofluorocarbons CFC 11 and CFC 12) Gamlen, P. H.; Lane, B. C.; Midgley, P. M. Atmospheric Environment (1967), Vol. 20, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1016/0004‐6981(86)90139‐3	journal	January 1986
Future atmospheric abundances and climate forcings from scenarios of global and regional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions Velders, Guus J. M.; Fahey, David W.; Daniel, John S. Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 123 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2015.10.071	journal	December 2015
Recent Trends in Global Emissions of Hydrochlorofluorocarbons and Hydrofluorocarbons: Reflecting on the 2007 Adjustments to the Montreal Protocol Montzka, S. A.; McFarland, M.; Andersen, S. O. The Journal of Physical Chemistry A, Vol. 119, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1021/jp5097376	journal	November 2014
Estimating European emissions of ozone-depleting and greenhouse gases using observations and a modeling back-attribution technique Manning, A. J. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 108, Issue D14 https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002312	journal	January 2003
Maximum likelihood estimation of covariance parameters for Bayesian atmospheric trace gas surface flux inversions Michalak, Anna M.; Hirsch, Adam; Bruhwiler, Lori Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 110, Issue D24 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD005970	journal	January 2005
Linking emissions of fossil fuel CO ₂ and other anthropogenic trace gases using atmospheric ¹⁴ CO ₂ : THE Miller, John B.; Lehman, Scott J.; Montzka, Stephen A. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 117, Issue D8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017048	journal	April 2012
Extension and integration of atmospheric carbon dioxide data into a globally consistent measurement record Masarie, Kenneth A.; Tans, Pieter P. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 100, Issue D6 https://doi.org/10.1029/95JD00859	journal	January 1995
Latitudinal distribution of the sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide derived from surface observations and an atmospheric transport model Tans, Pieter P.; Conway, Thomas J.; Nakazawa, Takakiyo Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 94, Issue D4 https://doi.org/10.1029/JD094iD04p05151	journal	January 1989
Present and future trends in the atmospheric burden of ozone-depleting halogens Montzka, S. A.; Butler, J. H.; Elkins, J. W. Nature, Vol. 398, Issue 6729 https://doi.org/10.1038/19499	journal	April 1999
Stratospheric sink for chlorofluoromethanes: chlorine atom-catalysed destruction of ozone Molina, Mario J.; Rowland, F. S. Nature, Vol. 249, Issue 5460 https://doi.org/10.1038/249810a0	journal	June 1974
Decrease in the growth rates of atmospheric chlorofluorocarbons 11 and 12 Elkins, J. W.; Thompson, T. M.; Swanson, T. H. Nature, Vol. 364, Issue 6440 https://doi.org/10.1038/364780a0	journal	August 1993
Non-CO2 greenhouse gases and climate change Montzka, S. A.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Butler, J. H. Nature, Vol. 476, Issue 7358 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10322	journal	August 2011
Assessment of the climate commitments and additional mitigation policies of the United States Greenblatt, Jeffery B.; Wei, Max Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3125	journal	September 2016
The importance of the Montreal Protocol in protecting climate Velders, G. J. M.; Andersen, S. O.; Daniel, J. S. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 104, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0610328104	journal	March 2007
The large contribution of projected HFC emissions to future climate forcing Velders, G. J. M.; Fahey, D. W.; Daniel, J. S. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, Issue 27 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0902817106	journal	June 2009
Global emissions of refrigerants HCFC-22 and HFC-134a: Unforeseen seasonal contributions Xiang, Bin; Patra, Prabir K.; Montzka, Stephen A. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 49 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1417372111	journal	November 2014
Reconciling reported and unreported HFC emissions with atmospheric observations Lunt, Mark F.; Rigby, Matthew; Ganesan, Anita L. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1420247112	journal	April 2015
Continued emissions of carbon tetrachloride from the United States nearly two decades after its phaseout for dispersive uses Hu, Lei; Montzka, Stephen A.; Miller, Ben R. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 113, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1522284113	journal	February 2016
Preserving Montreal Protocol Climate Benefits by Limiting HFCs Velders, G. J. M.; Ravishankara, A. R.; Miller, M. K. Science, Vol. 335, Issue 6071 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1216414	journal	February 2012
Decline in the Tropospheric Abundance of Halogen from Halocarbons: Implications for Stratospheric Ozone Depletion Montzka, S. A.; Butler, J. H.; Myers, R. C. Science, Vol. 272, Issue 5266 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.272.5266.1318	journal	May 1996
Emergence of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer Solomon, Susan; Ivy, Diane J.; Kinnison, Doug Science, Vol. 353, Issue 6296 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aae0061	journal	June 2016
Inverse Methods for Atmospheric Sounding: Theory and Practice Rodgers, Clive D. Series on Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Vol. 2 https://doi.org/10.1142/3171	book	July 2000
Global and regional emission estimates for HCFC-22 Saikawa, E.; Rigby, M.; Prinn, R. G. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 12, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-10033-2012	journal	January 2012
An extended Kalman-filter for regional scale inverse emission estimation Brunner, D.; Henne, S.; Keller, C. A. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 12, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-3455-2012	journal	January 2012
Estimates of European emissions of methyl chloroform using a Bayesian inversion method Maione, M.; Graziosi, F.; Arduini, J. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 14, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9755-2014	journal	January 2014
Comparing atmospheric transport models for future regional inversions over Europe – Part 1: mapping the atmospheric CO₂ signals Geels, C.; Gloor, M.; Ciais, P. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 7, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-3461-2007	journal	January 2007
Vertical mixing in atmospheric tracer transport models: error characterization and propagation Gerbig, C.; Körner, S.; Lin, J. C. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 8, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-591-2008	journal	January 2008
An analytical inversion method for determining regional and global emissions of greenhouse gases: Sensitivity studies and application to halocarbons Stohl, A.; Seibert, P.; Arduini, J. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 9, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-1597-2009	journal	January 2009
Global and regional emission estimates for HCFC-22 Saikawa, E.; Rigby, M.; Prinn, R. G. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 12, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp‐12‐10033‐2012	journal	January 2012
An extended Kalman-filter for regional scale inverse emission estimation Brunner, D.; Henne, S.; Keller, C. A. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 12, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp‐12‐3455‐2012	journal	January 2012
Estimates of European emissions of methyl chloroform using a Bayesian inversion method Maione, M.; Graziosi, F.; Arduini, J. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 14, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp‐14‐9755‐2014	journal	January 2014
Comparing atmospheric transport models for future regional inversions over Europe – Part 1: mapping the atmospheric CO₂ signals Geels, C.; Gloor, M.; Ciais, P. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 7, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp‐7‐3461‐2007	journal	January 2007
Vertical mixing in atmospheric tracer transport models: error characterization and propagation Gerbig, C.; Körner, S.; Lin, J. C. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 8, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp‐8‐591‐2008	journal	January 2008
An analytical inversion method for determining regional and global emissions of greenhouse gases: Sensitivity studies and application to halocarbons Stohl, A.; Seibert, P.; Arduini, J. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 9, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp‐9‐1597‐2009	journal	January 2009
Results from the International Halocarbons in Air Comparison Experiment (IHALACE) Hall, B. D.; Engel, A.; Mühle, J. Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-469-2014	journal	January 2014
Results from the International Halocarbons in Air Comparison Experiment (IHALACE) Hall, B. D.; Engel, A.; Mühle, J. Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/amt‐7‐469‐2014	journal	January 2014

Cited By (11)

Changes in HCFC Emissions in China During 2011–2017 Fang, X.; Yao, B.; Vollmer, M. K. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl083169	journal	August 2019
An unexpected and persistent increase in global emissions of ozone-depleting CFC-11 Montzka, Stephen A.; Dutton, Geoff S.; Yu, Pengfei Nature, Vol. 557, Issue 7705 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0106-2	journal	May 2018
Increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern China based on atmospheric observations Rigby, M.; Park, S.; Saito, T. Nature, Vol. 569, Issue 7757 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1193-4	journal	May 2019
Environmental effects of ozone depletion, UV radiation and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, update 2017 Bais, A. F.; Lucas, R. M.; Bornman, J. F. Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences, Vol. 17, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1039/c7pp90043k	journal	January 2018
Ozone–climate interactions and effects on solar ultraviolet radiation Bais, A. F.; Bernhard, G.; McKenzie, R. L. Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences, Vol. 18, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1039/c8pp90059k	journal	January 2019
Enhanced North American carbon uptake associated with El Niño Hu, Lei; Andrews, Arlyn E.; Thoning, Kirk W. Science Advances, Vol. 5, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw0076	journal	June 2019
Establishing long-term measurements of halocarbons at Taunus Observatory Schuck, Tanja J.; Lefrancois, Fides; Gallmann, Franziska Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16553-2018	journal	January 2018
Abundance and sources of atmospheric halocarbons in the Eastern Mediterranean Schoenenberger, Fabian; Henne, Stephan; Hill, Matthias Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4069-2018	journal	January 2018
Emissions of halocarbons from India inferred through atmospheric measurements Say, Daniel; Ganesan, Anita L.; Lunt, Mark F. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9865-2019	journal	January 2019
Abundance and Sources of Atmospheric Halocarbons in the Eastern Mediterranean Schoenenberger, Fabian; Henne, Stephan; Hill, Matthias Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-451	posted_content	July 2017
Establishing long-term measurements of halocarbons at Taunus Observatory Schuck, Tanja J.; Lefrancois, Fides; Gallmann, Franziska Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000088334	text	January 2018

Similar Records

A greenhouse gas emissions inventory for Pennsylvania

Journal Article · Mon Aug 01 00:00:00 EDT 2005 · Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association · OSTI ID:20647743

Measurement, reporting and Verification (MRV) of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases: International Best Practices and Suggestions for China

Technical Report · Thu Nov 30 23:00:00 EST 2023 · OSTI ID:2228452

Benefits of Energy Efficient and Low-Global Warming Potential Refrigerant Cooling Equipment

Technical Report · Tue Aug 13 00:00:00 EDT 2019 · OSTI ID:1559243

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Considerable contribution of the Montreal Protocol to declining greenhouse gas emissions from the United States

Citation Formats

References (39)

Cited By (11)

Similar Records

Related Subjects