Understanding Inter-Annual Variability of PV Energy Production in the Contiguous United States

Conference · Mon Aug 20 04:00:00 EDT 2018

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1109/PMAPS.2018.8440289· OSTI ID:1476245

Maclaurin, Galen J ^[1]; Cole, Wesley J ^[1]; Lopez, Anthony J ^[1]; Reimers, Andrew ^[1]; Rosenlieb, Evan ^[1]; Roberts, Billy J ^[1]

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1. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Year-to-year variability of photovoltaic (PV) generation is an important factor for project financing as well as for modeling the reliability and resource adequacy of power systems. In this work, we analyze inter-annual variability of PV generation across the contiguous United States using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) from 1998 to 2014. We compare the estimated PV generation from the typical meteorological year (TMY) against the long-term mean, and find that on average the TMY tends to overpredict estimated PV production. However, we also found significant regional bias and spatial clustering in that comparison, such that there are many regional pockets of underprediction as well. Finally, we show that there is not a single year of data that most closely approximates a representative 'resource year' for all regions of the United States. These results point to the need to understand inter-annual variability at individual sites and to be aware of the shortcomings of using TMY or a single year of data for project or grid modeling.

• Research Organization: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)
• DOE Contract Number: AC36-08GO28308
• OSTI ID: 1476245
• Report Number(s): NREL/CP-6A20-70726
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

14 SOLAR ENERGY
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
PV
capacity value
long-term variability
national solar radiation database
probability exceedance