Climatic Responses to Future Trans-Arctic Shipping

Stephenson, Scott R.; Wang, Wenshan; Zender, Charles S.; Wang, Hailong; Davis, Steven J.; Rasch, Philip J.

doi:10.1029/2018GL078969

Title: Climatic Responses to Future Trans-Arctic Shipping

Journal Article · Fri Sep 28 00:00:00 EDT 2018 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078969· OSTI ID:1475071

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Department of Geography, University of Connecticut, Storrs CT USA
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine CA USA
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA

As global temperatures increase, sea ice loss will increasingly enable commercial shipping traffic to cross the Arctic Ocean, where the ships' gas and particulate emissions may have strong regional effects. Here we investigate impacts of shipping emissions on Arctic climate using a fully coupled Earth system model (CESM 1.2.2) and a suite of newly developed projections of 21st-century trans-Arctic shipping emissions. We find that trans-Arctic shipping will reduce Arctic warming by nearly 1 °C by 2099, due to sulfate-driven liquid water cloud formation. Cloud fraction and liquid water path exhibit significant positive trends, cooling the lower atmosphere and surface. Positive feedbacks from sea ice growth-induced albedo increases and decreased downwelling longwave radiation due to reduced water vapor content amplify the cooling relative to the shipping-free Arctic. Our findings thus point to the complexity in Arctic climate responses to increased shipping traffic, justifying further study and policy considerations as trade routes open.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0012998; AC05-76RL01830; AC02-05CH11231; AC05-76RLO1830; NNX14AH55A; 80NSSC17K0540; 80NSSC17K0416

OSTI ID:: 1475071

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1479151; OSTI ID: 1510437

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-135168

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 45 Journal Issue: 18; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 27 works

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