Review and outlook for the world oil market. World Bank discussion paper

Technical Report · Fri Dec 01 04:00:00 EST 1995

OSTI ID:147502

Streifel, S S

The objectives of the study are: (1) to review historical developments in world oil and energy markets; (2) review past and recent forecasts of oil prices and oil markets; and (3) project world oil demand, supply and prices to 2010. A major aim of the study is to take a view on long term oil prices rather than present several alternative scenarios. A basic conclusion of the paper is that significantly higher or lower real oil prices are less likely than a continuance of present price levels, although there is a fairly wide band in which oil prices could reasonably be expected to fluctuate or be sustained, i.e., the low `teens` to the the low $20s per barrel range. OPEC is expected to continue to limit output to keep oil prices well above the long term competitive costs of productions. Consequently the oil market is expected to remain volatile and unstable, although somewhat more stable than during the early 1980s when oil prices were far too high to be sustained. Although upward oil price shocks are likely, a greater risk to the forecast in the near-to-medium term is for a further decline in real oil prices. (Copyright (c) 1995 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank.)

• Research Organization: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Washington, DC (United States)
• OSTI ID: 147502
• Report Number(s): PB--96-107495/XAB; WORLD BANK DP--301
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

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