Decision Support for Mitigation of Livestock Disease: Rinderpest as a Case Study

Mourant, Judith R.; Fenimore, Paul W.; Manore, Carrie A.; McMahon, Benjamin H.

doi:10.3389/fvets.2018.00182

Title: Decision Support for Mitigation of Livestock Disease: Rinderpest as a Case Study

Journal Article · Mon Sep 03 00:00:00 EDT 2018 · Frontiers in Veterinary Science

DOI:https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2018.00182· OSTI ID:1468364

Mourant, Judith R.; Fenimore, Paul W.; Manore, Carrie A.; McMahon, Benjamin H.

A versatile, interactive model to predict geographically resolved epidemic progression after pathogen introduction into a population is presented. Deterministic simulations incorporating a compartmental disease model run rapidly, facilitating the analysis of mitigations such as vaccination and transmission reduction on epidemic spread and progression. We demonstrate the simulation model using rinderpest infection of cattle, a devastating livestock disease. Rinderpest has been extinguished in the wild, but it is still a threat due to stored virus in some laboratories. Comparison of simulations to historical outbreaks provides some validation of the model. Simulations of potential outbreaks demonstrate potential consequences of rinderpest virus release for a variety of possible disease parameters and mitigations. Our results indicate that a rinderpest outbreak could result in severe social and economic consequences.

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Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; LANL Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) (United States); National Science Foundation (NSF)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-06NA25396; DTRA10027-13794; CHE-1314029

OSTI ID:: 1468364

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1475338

Report Number(s):: LA-UR-17-29923; 182

Journal Information:: Frontiers in Veterinary Science, Journal Name: Frontiers in Veterinary Science Vol. 5; ISSN 2297-1769

Publisher:: Frontiers Media SACopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: Switzerland

Language:: English

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Cited by: 7 works

Citation information provided by
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