Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall [Seasonally ice-free Arctic favors dry California]

Cvijanovic, Ivana; Santer, Benjamin D.; Bonfils, Céline; Lucas, Donald D.; Chiang, John C.  H.; Zimmerman, Susan

doi:10.1038/s41467-017-01907-4

Title: Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall [Seasonally ice-free Arctic favors dry California]

Journal Article · Fri Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 2017 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01907-4· OSTI ID:1466961

Cvijanovic, Ivana ^[1]; Santer, Benjamin D. ^[1]; Bonfils, Céline ^[1];

^[1]; Chiang, John C. H. ^[2]; Zimmerman, Susan ^[3]

Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). Climate Modeling and Analysis
Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States). Dept. of Geography and Berkeley Atmospheric Sciences Center
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). Center for Accelerator Mass Spectrometry

© 2017 The Author(s). From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California's precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23), Climate and Environmental Sciences Division (SC-23.1 )

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-07NA27344; AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1466961

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1476579

Report Number(s):: LLNL-JRNL-680635; 804858

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Vol. 8, Issue 1; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 70 works

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