Anthropogenic warming impacts on California snowpack during drought

Berg, Neil; Hall, Alex

doi:10.1002/2016GL072104

Anthropogenic warming impacts on California snowpack during drought

Journal Article · Wed Mar 15 00:00:00 EDT 2017 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072104· OSTI ID:1465344

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Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences; University of California Irvine
Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

Sierra Nevada climate and snowpack is simulated during the period of extreme drought from 2011 to 2015 and compared to an identical simulation except for the removal of the twentieth century anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic warming reduced average snowpack levels by 25%, with middle-to-low elevations experiencing reductions between 26 and 43%. In terms of event frequency, return periods associated with anomalies in 4 year 1 April snow water equivalent are estimated to have doubled, and possibly quadrupled, due to past warming. Here, we also estimate effects of future anthropogenic warmth on snowpack during a drought similar to that of 2011–2015. Further snowpack declines of 60–85% are expected, depending on emissions scenario. The return periods associated with future snowpack levels are estimated to range from millennia to much longer. Therefore, past human emissions of greenhouse gases are already negatively impacting statewide water resources during drought, and much more severe impacts are likely to be inevitable.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: Annenberg Foundation; National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0014061

OSTI ID:: 1465344

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1402209

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 5 Vol. 44; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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