Detection and attribution of vegetation greening trend in China over the last 30&nbsp;years

Piao, Shilong; Yin, Guodong; Tan, Jianguang; Cheng, Lei; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Yue; Liu, Ronggao; Mao, Jiafu; Myneni, Ranga B.; Peng, Shushi; Poulter, Ben; Shi, Xiaoying; Xiao, Zhiqiang; Zeng, Ning; Zeng, ZhenZhong; Wang, Yingping

doi:10.1111/gcb.12795

Detection and attribution of vegetation greening trend in China over the last 30 years

Journal Article · Tue Nov 04 00:00:00 EST 2014 · Global Change Biology

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12795· OSTI ID:1348302

Piao, Shilong ^[1]; Yin, Guodong ^[2]; Tan, Jianguang ^[2]; Cheng, Lei ^[3]; Huang, Mengtian ^[2]; Li, Yue ^[2]; Liu, Ronggao ^[4]; Mao, Jiafu ^[5]; Myneni, Ranga B. ^[6]; Peng, Shushi ^[2]; Poulter, Ben ^[7]; Shi, Xiaoying ^[4]; Xiao, Zhiqiang ^[8]; Zeng, Ning ^[9]; Zeng, ZhenZhong ^[2]; Wang, Yingping ^[3]

Peking Univ., Beijing (China). Sino-French Inst. for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences; Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China). Inst. of Tibetan Plateau Research, Center for Excellence in Tibetan Earth Scicence
Peking Univ., Beijing (China). Sino-French Inst. for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Vic. (Australia). Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China). Inst. of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Climate Change Science Inst. and Environmental Sciences Division
Boston Univ., MA (United States). Dept. of Earth and Environment
Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States). Inst. on Ecosystems and the Dept. of Ecology
Beijing Normal Univ., Beijing (China). School of Geography
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science

The reliable detection and attribution of changes in vegetation growth is a prerequisite for the development of strategies for the sustainable management of ecosystems. This is an extraordinary challenge. To our knowledge, this study is the first to comprehensively detect and attribute a greening trend in China over the last three decades. Here, we use three different satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) datasets for detection as well as five different process-based ecosystem models for attribution. Rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration and nitrogen deposition are identified as the most likely causes of the greening trend in China, explaining 85% and 41% of the average growing-season LAI trend (LAI_GS) estimated by satellite datasets (average trend of 0.0070yr^-1, ranging from 0.0035yr^-1 to 0.0127yr^-1), respectively. The contribution of nitrogen deposition is more clearly seen in southern China than in the north of the country. Models disagree about the contribution of climate change alone to the trend in LAI_GS at the country scale (one model shows a significant increasing trend, whereas two others show significant decreasing trends). However, the models generally agree on the negative impacts of climate change in north China and Inner Mongolia and the positive impact in the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. Provincial forest area change tends to be significantly correlated with the trend of LAI_GS (P<0.05), and marginally significantly (P=0.07) correlated with the residual of LAI(GS) trend, calculated as the trend observed by satellite minus that estimated by models through considering the effects of climate change, rising CO₂ concentration and nitrogen deposition, across different provinces. In conclusion, this result highlights the important role of China's afforestation program in explaining the spatial patterns of trend in vegetation growth.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1348302

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1464436

Journal Information:: Global Change Biology, Journal Name: Global Change Biology Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 21; ISSN 1354-1013

Publisher:: WileyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Greening of the Earth and its drivers

Journal Article · Sun Apr 24 20:00:00 EDT 2016 · Nature Climate Change · OSTI ID:1328357

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
CO2 fertilization effect
China
afforestation
attribution
detection
greening trend
nitrogen deposition

Detection and attribution of vegetation greening trend in China over the last 30 years

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