Will Vehicle Automation Accelerate or Decelerate Electrification: Modeling Demand for Automated Electric Vehicles
Automation may induce more travel demand, posing a threat to energy security and environmental quality unless the induced travel demand is served with more efficient or clean fuel technologies. This study attempts to analyze whether automation may promote or discourage market acceptance of plug-in electric vehicles. A consumer choice model called MA3T-MC is developed to cover automated vehicles by expanding the existing MA3T model that focuses only on fuel type choices. Key findings include: 1) automation may increase sales shares of gasoline conventional vehicles and decrease shares of efficient vehicles including HEVs and PHEVs, due to greater energy cost savings for less efficient vehicles. 2) Automation may increase market shares of BEVs, due to the “free” range extension from the efficiency improvement by automation. 3) consumer heterogeneity is important in quantifying the national impact of automation on sales shares by fuel types and the total energy use.
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-00OR22725
- OSTI ID:
- 1460188
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 2018 Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting - Washington DC, District of Columbia, United States of America - 1/7/2018 5:00:00 AM-1/11/2018 5:00:00 AM
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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