Observed multivariable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity

Santer, Benjamin D.; Solomon, Susan; Bonfils, Céline; Zelinka, Mark D.; Painter, Jeffrey F.; Beltran, Francisco; Fyfe, John C.; Johannesson, Gardar; Mears, Carl; Ridley, David A.; Vernier, Jean‐Paul; Wentz, Frank J.

doi:10.1002/2014GL062366

Observed multivariable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity

Journal Article · Tue Jan 20 00:00:00 EST 2015 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062366· OSTI ID:1460152

Santer, Benjamin D. ^[1]; Solomon, Susan ^[2]; Bonfils, Céline ^[1]; Zelinka, Mark D. ^[1]; Painter, Jeffrey F. ^[1]; Beltran, Francisco ^[1]; Fyfe, John C. ^[3]; Johannesson, Gardar ^[1]; Mears, Carl ^[4]; Ridley, David A. ^[2]; Vernier, Jean‐Paul ^[5]; Wentz, Frank J. ^[4]

Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Livermore California USA
Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge Massachusetts USA
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Environment Canada Victoria British Columbia Canada
Remote Sensing Systems Santa Rosa California USA
NASA Langley Research Center Hampton Virginia USA

Abstract

The relatively muted warming of the surface and lower troposphere since 1998 has attracted considerable attention. One contributory factor to this “warming hiatus” is an increase in volcanically induced cooling over the early 21st century. Here we identify the signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity in multiple observed climate variables. Volcanic signals are statistically discernible in spatial averages of tropical and near‐global SST, tropospheric temperature, net clear‐sky short‐wave radiation, and atmospheric water vapor. Signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic eruptions are also detectable in near‐global averages of rainfall. In tropical average rainfall, however, only a Pinatubo‐caused drying signal is identifiable. Successful volcanic signal detection is critically dependent on removal of variability induced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-07NA27344

OSTI ID:: 1460152

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1402211

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 42; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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