Calibration of the E3SM Land Model Using Surrogate‐Based Global Optimization

Lu, Dan; Ricciuto, Daniel; Stoyanov, Miroslav; Gu, Lianhong

doi:10.1002/2017MS001134

Calibration of the E3SM Land Model Using Surrogate‐Based Global Optimization

Journal Article · Sat Jun 30 00:00:00 EDT 2018 · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001134· OSTI ID:1458568

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Computational Sciences and Engineering Division Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge TN USA
Environmental Sciences Division Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge TN USA
Computer Science and Mathematics Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge TN USA

Abstract

Calibration of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), land model (ELMv0) is challenging because of its model complexity, strong model nonlinearity, and significant computational requirements. Therefore, only a limited number of simulations can be allowed in any attempt to find a near‐optimal solution within an affordable time. The goal of this study is to calibrate some of the ELMv0 parameters to improve model projection of carbon fluxes. We propose a computationally efficient global optimization procedure using sparse‐grid based surrogates. We first use advanced sparse grid (SG) interpolation to construct a surrogate system of the ELMv0, and then calibrate the surrogate model in the optimization process. As the surrogate model is a polynomial whose evaluation is fast, it can be efficiently evaluated a sufficiently large number of times in the optimization, which facilitates the global search. We calibrate eight parameters against five years of net ecosystem exchange, total leaf area index, and latent heat flux data from the U.S. Missouri Ozark flux tower. The calibrated model is then used for predicting the three variables in the following 4 years. The results indicate that an accurate surrogate model can be created for the ELMv0 with a relatively small number of SG points, i.e., a few ELMv0 simulations that can be fully parallel. And, the application of the optimized parameters leads to a better model performance and a higher predictive capability than the default parameter values in the ELMv0.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

OSTI ID:: 1458568

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1458569
OSTI ID: 1460186

Journal Information:: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Journal Name: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Journal Issue: 6 Vol. 10; ISSN 1942-2466

Publisher:: Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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