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Title: Estimating the Value of Improved Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption Forecasts for Utility Resource Planning

Abstract

Misforecasting the adoption of customer-owned distributed photovoltaics (DPV) can have operational and financial implications for utilities - forecasting capabilities can be improved, but generally at a cost. This paper informs this decision-space by quantifying the costs of misforecasting across a wide range of DPV growth rates and misforecast severities. Using a simplified probabilistic method presented within, an analyst can make a first-order estimate of the financial benefit of improving a utility's forecasting capabilities, and thus be better informed about whether to make such an investment. For example, we show that a utility with 10 TWh per year of retail electric sales who initially estimates that the increase in DPV's contribution to total generation could range from 2 to 7.5 percent over the next 15 years could expect total present-value savings of approximately 4 million dollars if they could keep the severity of successive five-year misforecasts within plus or minus 25 percent. We also have more general discussions about how misforecasting DPV impacts the buildout and operation of the bulk power system - for example, we observed that misforecasting DPV most strongly influenced the amount of utility-scale PV that gets built, due to the similarity in the energy and capacity servicesmore » offered by the two solar technologies.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [2];  [2];  [3]
  1. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
  2. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  3. Technical Writer (unaffiliated)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)
OSTI Identifier:
1438049
Report Number(s):
NREL/TP-6A20-71042
DOE Contract Number:  
AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
14 SOLAR ENERGY; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; distributed photovoltaics; PV; DPV; forecast; value; resource planning

Citation Formats

Gagnon, Pieter J., Stoll, Brady, Mai, Trieu T., Ehlen, Ali, Barbose, Galen, Mills, Andrew, and Zuboy, Jarrett. Estimating the Value of Improved Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption Forecasts for Utility Resource Planning. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.2172/1438049.
Gagnon, Pieter J., Stoll, Brady, Mai, Trieu T., Ehlen, Ali, Barbose, Galen, Mills, Andrew, & Zuboy, Jarrett. Estimating the Value of Improved Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption Forecasts for Utility Resource Planning. United States. doi:10.2172/1438049.
Gagnon, Pieter J., Stoll, Brady, Mai, Trieu T., Ehlen, Ali, Barbose, Galen, Mills, Andrew, and Zuboy, Jarrett. Tue . "Estimating the Value of Improved Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption Forecasts for Utility Resource Planning". United States. doi:10.2172/1438049. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1438049.
@article{osti_1438049,
title = {Estimating the Value of Improved Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption Forecasts for Utility Resource Planning},
author = {Gagnon, Pieter J. and Stoll, Brady and Mai, Trieu T. and Ehlen, Ali and Barbose, Galen and Mills, Andrew and Zuboy, Jarrett},
abstractNote = {Misforecasting the adoption of customer-owned distributed photovoltaics (DPV) can have operational and financial implications for utilities - forecasting capabilities can be improved, but generally at a cost. This paper informs this decision-space by quantifying the costs of misforecasting across a wide range of DPV growth rates and misforecast severities. Using a simplified probabilistic method presented within, an analyst can make a first-order estimate of the financial benefit of improving a utility's forecasting capabilities, and thus be better informed about whether to make such an investment. For example, we show that a utility with 10 TWh per year of retail electric sales who initially estimates that the increase in DPV's contribution to total generation could range from 2 to 7.5 percent over the next 15 years could expect total present-value savings of approximately 4 million dollars if they could keep the severity of successive five-year misforecasts within plus or minus 25 percent. We also have more general discussions about how misforecasting DPV impacts the buildout and operation of the bulk power system - for example, we observed that misforecasting DPV most strongly influenced the amount of utility-scale PV that gets built, due to the similarity in the energy and capacity services offered by the two solar technologies.},
doi = {10.2172/1438049},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue May 15 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Tue May 15 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}

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