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Title: Estimating the Value of Improved Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption Forecasts for Utility Resource Planning

Abstract

Misforecasting the adoption of customer-owned distributed photovoltaics (DPV) can have operational and financial implications for utilities - forecasting capabilities can be improved, but generally at a cost. This paper informs this decision-space by quantifying the costs of misforecasting across a wide range of DPV growth rates and misforecast severities. Using a simplified probabilistic method presented within, an analyst can make a first-order estimate of the financial benefit of improving a utility's forecasting capabilities, and thus be better informed about whether to make such an investment. For example, we show that a utility with 10 TWh per year of retail electric sales who initially estimates that the increase in DPV's contribution to total generation could range from 2 to 7.5 percent over the next 15 years could expect total present-value savings of approximately 4 million dollars if they could keep the severity of successive five-year misforecasts within plus or minus 25 percent. We also have more general discussions about how misforecasting DPV impacts the buildout and operation of the bulk power system - for example, we observed that misforecasting DPV most strongly influenced the amount of utility-scale PV that gets built, due to the similarity in the energy and capacity servicesmore » offered by the two solar technologies.« less

Authors:
 [1]
  1. National Renewable Energy Labora
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)
OSTI Identifier:
1438049
Report Number(s):
NREL/TP-6A20-71042
DOE Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
14 SOLAR ENERGY; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; distributed photovoltaics; PV; DPV; forecast; value; resource planning

Citation Formats

Gagnon, Pieter J. Estimating the Value of Improved Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption Forecasts for Utility Resource Planning. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.2172/1438049.
Gagnon, Pieter J. Estimating the Value of Improved Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption Forecasts for Utility Resource Planning. United States. doi:10.2172/1438049.
Gagnon, Pieter J. Tue . "Estimating the Value of Improved Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption Forecasts for Utility Resource Planning". United States. doi:10.2172/1438049. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1438049.
@article{osti_1438049,
title = {Estimating the Value of Improved Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption Forecasts for Utility Resource Planning},
author = {Gagnon, Pieter J},
abstractNote = {Misforecasting the adoption of customer-owned distributed photovoltaics (DPV) can have operational and financial implications for utilities - forecasting capabilities can be improved, but generally at a cost. This paper informs this decision-space by quantifying the costs of misforecasting across a wide range of DPV growth rates and misforecast severities. Using a simplified probabilistic method presented within, an analyst can make a first-order estimate of the financial benefit of improving a utility's forecasting capabilities, and thus be better informed about whether to make such an investment. For example, we show that a utility with 10 TWh per year of retail electric sales who initially estimates that the increase in DPV's contribution to total generation could range from 2 to 7.5 percent over the next 15 years could expect total present-value savings of approximately 4 million dollars if they could keep the severity of successive five-year misforecasts within plus or minus 25 percent. We also have more general discussions about how misforecasting DPV impacts the buildout and operation of the bulk power system - for example, we observed that misforecasting DPV most strongly influenced the amount of utility-scale PV that gets built, due to the similarity in the energy and capacity services offered by the two solar technologies.},
doi = {10.2172/1438049},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue May 15 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Tue May 15 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}

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