Long-term implications of sustained wind power growth in the United States: Direct electric system impacts and costs

Lantz, Eric; Mai, Trieu; Wiser, Ryan H.; Krishnan, Venkat

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.07.023

Long-term implications of sustained wind power growth in the United States: Direct electric system impacts and costs

Journal Article · Fri Jul 22 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · Applied Energy

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.07.023· OSTI ID:1436992

Lantz, Eric ^[1]; Mai, Trieu ^[1]; Wiser, Ryan H. ^[2]; Krishnan, Venkat ^[1]

National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

This paper evaluates potential changes in the power system associated with sustained growth in wind generation in the United States to 35% of end-use demand by 2050; Wiser et al. (forthcoming) evaluates societal benefits and other impacts for this same scenario. Under reference or central conditions, the analysis finds cumulative wind capacity of 404 GW would be required to reach this level and drive 2050 incremental electricity rate and cumulative electric sector savings of 2% and 3%, respectively, relative to a scenario with no new wind capacity additions. Greater savings are estimated under higher fossil fuel costs or with greater advancements in wind technologies. Conversely, incremental costs are found when fossil fuel costs are lower than central assumptions or wind technology improvements are more-limited. Through 2030 the primary generation sources displaced by new wind capacity include natural gas and coal-fired generation. By 2050 wind could displace other renewables. Incremental new transmission infrastructure totaling 29 million MW-miles is estimated to be needed by 2050. In conjunction with related societal benefits, this work demonstrates that 35% wind energy by 2050 is plausible, could support enduring benefits, and could result in long-term consumer savings, if nearer-term (pre-2030) cost barriers are overcome; at the same time, these opportunities are not anticipated to be realized in their full form under “business-as-usual” conditions.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE); USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Water Power Technologies Office; USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Wind Energy Technologies Office (EE-4WE)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; AC36-08GO28308

OSTI ID:: 1436992

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1329464
OSTI ID: 1358774

Journal Information:: Applied Energy, Journal Name: Applied Energy Journal Issue: C Vol. 179; ISSN 0306-2619

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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