Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States

Hsiang, Solomon; Kopp, Robert; Jina, Amir; Rising, James; Delgado, Michael; Mohan, Shashank; Rasmussen, D. J.; Muir-Wood, Robert; Wilson, Paul; Oppenheimer, Michael; Larsen, Kate; Houser, Trevor

doi:10.1126/science.aal4369

Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States

Journal Article · Thu Jun 29 00:00:00 EDT 2017 · Science

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aal4369· OSTI ID:1435869

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Estimates of climate change damage are central to the design of climate policies. Here, we develop a flexible architecture for computing damages that integrates climate science, econometric analyses, and process models. We use this approach to construct spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change. The combined value of market and nonmarket damage across analyzed sectors—agriculture, crime, coastal storms, energy, human mortality, and labor—increases quadratically in global mean temperature, costing roughly 1.2% of gross domestic product per +1°C on average. Importantly, risk is distributed unequally across locations, generating a large transfer of value northward and westward that increases economic inequality. By the late 21st century, the poorest third of counties are projected to experience damages between 2 and 20% of county income (90% chance) under business-as-usual emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5).

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

OSTI ID:: 1435869

Journal Information:: Science, Journal Name: Science Journal Issue: 6345 Vol. 356; ISSN 0036-8075

Publisher:: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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