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Title: Climate, not conflict, explains extreme Middle East dust storm

Journal Article · · Environmental Research Letters
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The recent dust storm in the Middle East (Sepember 2015) was publicized in the media as a sign of an impending 'Dust Bowl.' Its severity, demonstrated by extreme aerosol optical depth in the atmosphere in the 99th percentile compared to historical data, was attributed to the ongoing regional conflict. However, surface meteorological and remote sensing data, as well as regional climate model simulations, support an alternative hypothesis: the historically unprecedented aridity played a more prominent role, as evidenced by unusual climatic and meteorological conditions prior to and during the storm. Remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index demonstrates that vegetation cover was high in 2015 relative to the prior drought and conflict periods, suggesting that agricultural activity was not diminished during that year, thus negating the media narrative. Instead, meteorological simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model show that the storm was associated with a cyclone and 'Shamal' winds, typical for dust storm generation in this region, that were immediately followed by an unusual wind reversal at low levels that spread dust west to the Mediterranean Coast. These unusual meteorological conditions were aided by a significant reduction in the critical shear stress due to extreme dry and hot conditions, thereby enhancing dust availability for erosion during this storm. Concluding, unusual aridity, combined with unique synoptic weather patterns, enhanced dust emission and westward long-range transport across the region, thus generating the extreme storm.

Research Organization:
Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF); Dept. of Agriculture (USDA) (United States)
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0006967; SC0011461; DGE-1068871; EAR-1344703; 2011-67003-30222
OSTI ID:
1331223
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1331224; OSTI ID: 1425477
Journal Information:
Environmental Research Letters, Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Vol. 11 Journal Issue: 11; ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP PublishingCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United Kingdom
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 37 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Cited By (5)

Adding our leaves: A community‐wide perspective on research directions in ecohydrology journal January 2020
The seasons’ length in 21st century CMIP5 projections over the eastern Mediterranean journal March 2018
Dry events in the winter in Israel and its linkage to synoptic and large-scale circulations journal October 2018
Spatial and Temporal Variations in the Incidence of Dust Storms in Saudi Arabia Revealed from In Situ Observations journal April 2019
Cyclogenesis and Density Currents in the Middle East and the Associated Dust Activity in September 2015 journal August 2019

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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
dust storms
wind erosion
drought
climate change