Russia's Conventional Precision Strike Capabilities, Regional Crises, and Nuclear Thresholds
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
The potential for war between Russia and the West has returned after a long hiatus, despite the many effor ts of the United States and its NATO allies to remake the relationship with Russia by putting it on a much more cooperative footing. A central question for the West is what role nuclear escalation by Russia might play in such a confl ict. It is common today to hear Western experts argue that Russia’s nuclear threshold has fallen—and that it will rise again as Russia’s modernization of its general purpose forces plays out in coming years. A close examination of this topic points to a different set of conclusions. Russia’s nuclear threshold has not so much fallen as changed, becoming more fl uid and less predictable. The modernization that will matter to Russia’s future nuclear threshold is not the modernization of the general purpose forces but the newly diversifi ed strategic toolkit, which includes multiple new non-nuclear tools. Western deterrence strategies must adapt to a circumstance that appears somewhat similar to Cold War challenges but is in fact substantially different.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC52-07NA27344
- OSTI ID:
- 1424635
- Report Number(s):
- LLNL-TR-745418
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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