Evaluation and improvement of variance reduction in Monte Carlo production simulation

Journal Article · Tue Nov 30 23:00:00 EST 1993 · IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1109/60.260971· OSTI ID:142435

Huang, S R ^[1]; Chen, S L ^[2]

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1. National Tsing Hua Univ., Hsinchu (Taiwan, Province of China). Electrical Engineering Dept.
2. Taiwan Power Co., Taipei (Taiwan, Province of China). Power Research Inst.

A computer algorithm which combines several variance reduction techniques to enhance the precision of Monte Carlo production simulation is designed. The techniques included are stratified and antithetic samplings and linear regression estimation. For stratified sampling, a mathematical rule which can always lead to a near-optimum stratification is presented. The variance reduction by modeling generating units` outage according to their uptime/downtime distribution in comparison with the modeling by forced outage rate is investigated. Numerical test results by applying the algorithm to cost and environment evaluations in actual Taiwan power systems are examined.

• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• OSTI ID: 142435
• Journal Information: IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, Journal Name: IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 8; ISSN 0885-8969; ISSN ITCNE4
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION
ACCURACY
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
DATA COVARIANCES
OPERATING COST
POWER GENERATION
POWER SYSTEMS