Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States

Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih -Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Gao, Huilin; Rastogi, Deeksha; Gangrade, Sudershan

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.11.027

Title: Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States

Journal Article · Wed Nov 15 00:00:00 EST 2017 · Journal of Hydrology

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.11.027· OSTI ID:1410930

Naz, Bibi S. ^[1];

^[2];

^[2]; Gao, Huilin ^[3]; Rastogi, Deeksha ^[4]; Gangrade, Sudershan ^[4]

Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Forschungszentrum Julich GmbH, Julich (Germany)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

The magnitude and frequency of hydrometeorological extremes are expected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the rest of this century, and their increase will significantly impact water resource management. While previous efforts focused on the effects of reservoirs on downstream discharge, the effects of climate change on reservoir inflows in upstream areas are not well understood. We evaluated the large-scale climate change effects on extreme hydrological events and their implications for reservoir inflows in 178 headwater basins across CONUS using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model was forced with a 10-member ensemble of global circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24° grid cell resolution. The results projected an increase in the likelihood of flood risk by 44% for a majority of subbasins upstream of flood control reservoirs in the central United States and increased drought risk by 11% for subbasins upstream of hydropower reservoirs across the western United States. Increased risk of both floods and droughts can potentially make reservoirs across CONUS more vulnerable to future climate conditions. In conclusion, this study estimates reservoir inflow changes over the next several decades, which can be used to optimize water supply management downstream.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC); USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Water Power Technologies Office

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1410930

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1576618

Journal Information:: Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 556, Issue C; ISSN 0022-1694

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 48 works

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