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Title: Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

Abstract

The Colorado River basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. Here, we combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  2. Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program
OSTI Identifier:
1410623
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-17-27608
Journal ID: ISSN 0043-1397
Grant/Contract Number:
AC52-06NA25396
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Water Resources Research
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 54; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 0043-1397
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Earth Sciences; sensitivity; modeling; hydrology; climate change; Colorado River Basin; resource management

Citation Formats

Bennett, Katrina Eleanor, Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando, Jonko, Alexandra, Bohn, Theodore J., Atchley, Adam Lee, Urban, Nathan Mark, and Middleton, Richard Stephen. Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1002/2017WR020471.
Bennett, Katrina Eleanor, Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando, Jonko, Alexandra, Bohn, Theodore J., Atchley, Adam Lee, Urban, Nathan Mark, & Middleton, Richard Stephen. Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin. United States. doi:10.1002/2017WR020471.
Bennett, Katrina Eleanor, Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando, Jonko, Alexandra, Bohn, Theodore J., Atchley, Adam Lee, Urban, Nathan Mark, and Middleton, Richard Stephen. Mon . "Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin". United States. doi:10.1002/2017WR020471.
@article{osti_1410623,
title = {Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin},
author = {Bennett, Katrina Eleanor and Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando and Jonko, Alexandra and Bohn, Theodore J. and Atchley, Adam Lee and Urban, Nathan Mark and Middleton, Richard Stephen},
abstractNote = {The Colorado River basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. Here, we combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach.},
doi = {10.1002/2017WR020471},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
number = 1,
volume = 54,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Nov 20 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Mon Nov 20 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}

Journal Article:
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