Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

Bennett, Katrina Eleanor; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Jonko, Alexandra; Bohn, Theodore J.; Atchley, Adam Lee; Urban, Nathan Mark; Middleton, Richard Stephen

doi:10.1002/2017WR020471

Title: Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

Journal Article · Mon Nov 20 00:00:00 EST 2017 · Water Resources Research

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020471· OSTI ID:1410623

^[1]; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando ^[1];

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^[2];

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Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States)

The Colorado River basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. Here, we combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach.

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Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-06NA25396

OSTI ID:: 1410623

Report Number(s):: LA-UR-17-27608

Journal Information:: Water Resources Research, Vol. 54, Issue 1; ISSN 0043-1397

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 19 works

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