Agriculture, forestry, and other land-use emissions in Latin America

Calvin, Katherine V.; Beach, Robert; Gurgel, Angelo; Labriet, Maryse; Loboguerrero Rodriguez, Ana Maria

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2015.03.020

Agriculture, forestry, and other land-use emissions in Latin America

Journal Article · Thu Apr 07 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · Energy Economics

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2015.03.020· OSTI ID:1406808

Calvin, Katherine V. ^[1]; ^[2]; Gurgel, Angelo ^[3]; Labriet, Maryse ^[4]; Loboguerrero Rodriguez, Ana Maria ^[5]

Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.
Research Triangle Inst., Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)
Fundacao Getulio Vargas (EESP/FGV), Sao Paulo (Brazil). Sao Paulo School of Economics, Brazil/MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Climate Change
Eneris Environment Energy Consultants, Madrid (Spain)
International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali (Colombia). CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)

Nearly 40% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Latin America were from agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) in 2008, more than double the global fraction of AFOLU emissions. In this paper, we investigate the future trajectory of AFOLU GHG emissions in Latin America, with and without efforts to mitigate, using a multi-model comparison approach. We find significant uncertainty in future emissions with and without climate policy. This uncertainty is due to differences in a variety of assumptions including (1) the role of bioenergy, (2) where and how bioenergy is produced, (3) the availability of afforestation options in climate mitigation policy, and (4) N₂O and CH₄ emissions intensity. With climate policy, these differences in assumptions can lead to significant variance in mitigation potential, with three models indicating reductions in AFOLU GHG emissions and one model indicating modest increases in AFOLU GHG emissions.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: European Union (EU); USDOE; USEPA

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1406808

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 22558746

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--107886; 453040310

Journal Information:: Energy Economics, Journal Name: Energy Economics Journal Issue: C Vol. 56; ISSN 0140-9883

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions van Ruijven, Bas J.; Daenzer, Katie; Fisher-Vanden, Karen Energy Economics, Vol. 56 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2015.02.003	journal	May 2016
Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America van der Zwaan, Bob; Kober, Tom; Calderon, Silvia Energy Economics, Vol. 56 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2015.11.019	journal	May 2016
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Neural Modeling of Greenhouse Gas Emission from Agricultural Sector in European Union Member Countries Kolasa-Więcek, Alicja Water, Air, & Soil Pollution, Vol. 229, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11270-018-3861-7	journal	June 2018
Marginal abatement cost curves for REDD+ in Kalimantan, Indonesia and the potential role of cost-saving plantations Lu, Heli; Liu, Guifang; Okuda, Toshinori Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac83f	journal	July 2018
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