Sensitivity of terrestrial precipitation trends to the structural evolution of sea surface temperatures

Anderson, Bruce T.; Lintner, Benjamin R.; Langenbrunner, Baird; Neelin, J. David; Hawkins, Ed; Syktus, Jozef

doi:10.1002/2014GL062593

Title: Sensitivity of terrestrial precipitation trends to the structural evolution of sea surface temperatures

Journal Article · Wed Feb 18 00:00:00 EST 2015 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062593· OSTI ID:1402291

Anderson, Bruce T. ^[1]; Lintner, Benjamin R. ^[2]; Langenbrunner, Baird ^[3]; Neelin, J. David ^[3]; Hawkins, Ed ^[4]; Syktus, Jozef ^[5]

Department of Earth and Environment Boston University Boston Massachusetts USA, The Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer‐Range Future Boston University Boston Massachusetts USA
Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers State University of New Jersey New Brunswick New Jersey USA
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of California Los Angeles California USA
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UK
Department of Science, Information Technology, Innovation and the Arts University of Queensland Brisbane Queensland Australia

Abstract Pronounced intermodel differences in the projected response of land surface precipitation (LSP) to future anthropogenic forcing remain in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model integrations. A large fraction of the intermodel spread in projected LSP trends is demonstrated here to be associated with systematic differences in simulated sea surface temperature (SST) trends, especially the representation of changes in (i) the interhemispheric SST gradient and (ii) the tropical Pacific SSTs. By contrast, intermodel differences in global mean SST, representative of differing global climate sensitivities, exert limited systematic influence on LSP patterns. These results highlight the importance to regional terrestrial precipitation changes of properly simulating the spatial distribution of large‐scale, remote changes as reflected in the SST response to increasing greenhouse gases. Moreover, they provide guidance regarding which region‐specific precipitation projections may be potentially better constrained for use in climate change impact assessments.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: DE‐SC0004975

OSTI ID:: 1402291

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 42 Journal Issue: 4; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 12 works

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