Trends in extreme temperature over Nigeria from percentile‐based threshold indices

Abatan, Abayomi A.; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Lawal, Kamoru A.; Gutowski, Jr., William J.

doi:10.1002/joc.4510

Trends in extreme temperature over Nigeria from percentile‐based threshold indices

Journal Article · Thu Oct 01 00:00:00 EDT 2015 · International Journal of Climatology

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4510· OSTI ID:1401157

Abatan, Abayomi A. ^[1]; Abiodun, Babatunde J. ^[2]; Lawal, Kamoru A. ^[3]; Gutowski, Jr., William J. ^[4]

Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Iowa State University Ames IA USA, Department of Meteorology and Climate Science Federal University of Technology Akure Nigeria
Climate System Analysis Group, Department of Environmental and Geographical Science University of Cape Town South Africa
Climate System Analysis Group, Department of Environmental and Geographical Science University of Cape Town South Africa, Nigerian Meteorological Agency Lagos Nigeria
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Iowa State University Ames IA USA

ABSTRACT

This study analyses spatial and temporal trends in extreme temperature indices over Nigeria. The percentile indices were calculated from newly homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature data for the period 1971–2012 for 21 stations in Nigeria. Indices describing the characteristics of hot extremes and cold extremes are calculated with the RClimDex software. The annual and seasonal trends in these indices are obtained using the ordinary least square fit and the statistical significance tested using the R‐based modified Mann–Kendall test. We examine characteristics of these indices for the entire country and separately for the three geographical zones in Nigeria: Guinea, Savanna, and Sahel. The spatial and temporal patterns of trends in the indices indicate that Nigeria has experienced statistically significant increase in the frequency of hot extreme and decrease in cold extreme events. Although majority of the stations have significant trends in warm days and warm nights, the annual trend is greatest in warm nights. In addition, the rate of warming in minimum temperature (‘warm nights’) is stronger in June, July, August ( JJA ) and September, October, November ( SON ) compare with December, January, February ( DJF ) and March, April, May ( MAM ). As for the trends in cold days and cold nights, the trends in cold nights are larger than for cold days at both the annual and seasonal scales. The regional analysis indicates that trends in warm nights and cold nights are most pronounced in Guinea and Sahel regions.

View Accepted Manuscript (Publisher)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: FG02-01ER63250; FG02-08ER64534

OSTI ID:: 1401157

Journal Information:: International Journal of Climatology, Journal Name: International Journal of Climatology Journal Issue: 6 Vol. 36; ISSN 0899-8418

Publisher:: Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United Kingdom

Language:: English

References (45)

Recent changes in air temperature, heat waves occurrences, and atmospheric circulation in Northern Africa: HEAT WAVES AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION Fontaine, Bernard; Janicot, Serge; Monerie, Paul-Arthur Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50667	journal	August 2013
An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids Mitchell, Timothy D.; Jones, Philip D. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 25, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1181	journal	January 2005
Variability of extreme temperature and precipitation in Iran during recent decades Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh; Asgari, Ahmad; Fattahi, Ebrahim International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 29, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1739	journal	March 2009
Trends in extreme temperature indices in South Africa: 1962-2009 Kruger, A. C.; Sekele, S. S. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 33, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3455	journal	March 2012
Trends in extreme temperature indices in Austria based on a new homogenised dataset Nemec, Johanna; Gruber, Christine; Chimani, Barbara International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 33, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3532	journal	June 2012
Air temperature, relative humidity, climate regionalization and thermal comfort of Nigeria: THERMAL CLIMATE AND THERMAL IN NIGERIA Eludoyin, O. M.; Adelekan, I. O.; Webster, R. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 34, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3817	journal	October 2013
Diurnal cycle of the intertropical discontinuity over West Africa analysed by remote sensing and mesoscale modelling Pospichal, Bernhard; Karam, DianaBou; Crewell, Susanne Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 136, Issue S1 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.435	journal	June 2009
Annual cycle of the West African monsoon: regional circulations and associated water vapour transport Thorncroft, Chris D.; Nguyen, Hanh; Zhang, Chidong Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 137, Issue 654 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.728	journal	January 2011
Towards a wetter Sudano-Sahelian ecological zone in twenty-first century Nigeria Odekunle, Theophilus O.; Andrew, Oniarah; Aremu, Sholademi O. Weather, Vol. 63, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.172	journal	January 2008
Simple indices of global climate variability and change Part II: attribution of climate change during the twentieth century Braganza, K.; Karoly, D. J.; Hirst, A. C. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 22, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0413-1	journal	May 2004
Seasonal evolution of the West African heat low: a climatological perspective Lavaysse, C.; Flamant, C.; Janicot, S. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 33, Issue 2-3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0553-4	journal	April 2009
Changes of temperature extremes for 1960–2004 in Far-West China Zhang, Qiang; Xu, Chong-Yu; Zhang, Zengxin Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Vol. 23, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-008-0252-4	journal	June 2008
Recent trends of mean maximum and minimum air temperatures in the western half of Iran Tabari, Hossein; Hosseinzadeh Talaee, Parisa Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Vol. 111, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-011-0125-0	journal	February 2011
Spatial and temporal temperature trends in Nigeria, 1901–2000 Oguntunde, Philip G.; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Lischeid, Gunnar Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Vol. 118, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-012-0199-3	journal	June 2012
Potential influences of global warming on future climate and extreme events in Nigeria Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Lawal, Kamoru A.; Salami, Ayobami T. Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 13, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-012-0381-7	journal	December 2012
A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data Hamed, Khaled H.; Ramachandra Rao, A. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 204, Issue 1-4 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00125-X	journal	January 1998
Analyses of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration in a French Mediterranean region in the context of climate change Chaouche, Keltoum; Neppel, Luc; Dieulin, Claudine Comptes Rendus Geoscience, Vol. 342, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2010.02.001	journal	March 2010
Trends of major hydroclimatic variables in the Tarim River basin during the past 50 years Xu, Zongxue; Liu, Zhaofei; Fu, Guobin Journal of Arid Environments, Vol. 74, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2009.08.014	journal	February 2010
Trends in seasonal and annual rainfall and rainy days in Kashmir Valley in the last century Kumar, Vijay; Jain, Sharad K. Quaternary International, Vol. 212, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2009.08.006	journal	January 2010
Daily Milan Temperature and Pressure Series (1763–1998): Completing and Homogenising the Data Maugeri, Maurizio; Buffoni, Letizia; Delmonte, Barbara Climatic Change, Vol. 53, Issue 1/3, p. 119-149 https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1014923027396	journal	January 2002
Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and west Africa New, Mark; Hewitson, Bruce; Stephenson, David B. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 111, Issue D14 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006289	journal	January 2006
Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation Alexander, L. V.; Zhang, X.; Peterson, T. C. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 111, Issue D5 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006290	journal	January 2006
Changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes in central and south Asia Klein Tank, A. M. G.; Peterson, T. C.; Quadir, D. A. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 111, Issue D16 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006316	journal	January 2006
Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western central Africa, Guinea Conakry, and Zimbabwe, 1955–2006 Aguilar, E.; Aziz Barry, A.; Brunet, M. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 114, Issue D2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011010	journal	January 2009
A second generation of homogenized Canadian monthly surface air temperature for climate trend analysis: HOMOGENIZED CANADIAN TEMPERATURE Vincent, Lucie A.; Wang, Xiaolan L.; Milewska, Ewa J. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 117, Issue D18 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017859	journal	September 2012
Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data Hirsch, Robert M.; Slack, James R.; Smith, Richard A. Water Resources Research, Vol. 18, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/WR018i001p00107	journal	February 1982
Hospital Admissions for Heart Disease: The Effects of Temperature and Humidity Schwartz, Joel; Samet, Jonathan M.; Patz, Jonathan A. Epidemiology, Vol. 15, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1097/01.ede.0000134875.15919.0f	journal	January 2004
Heat Stress and Public Health: A Critical Review Kovats, R. Sari; Hajat, Shakoor Annual Review of Public Health, Vol. 29, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.publhealth.29.020907.090843	journal	April 2008
Urbanization: Its Detection and Effect in the United States Climate Record Karl, Thomas R.; Diaz, Henry F.; Kukla, George Journal of Climate, Vol. 1, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1988)001<1099:UIDAEI>2.0.CO;2	journal	November 1988
An Analysis of Recent Rainfall Conditions in West Africa, Including the Rainy Seasons of the 1997 El Niño and the 1998 La Niña Years Nicholson, S. E.; Some, B.; Kone, B. Journal of Climate, Vol. 13, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2628:AAORRC>2.0.CO;2	journal	July 2000
Characteristics of Daily and Extreme Temperatures over Canada Bonsal, B. R.; Zhang, X.; Vincent, L. A. Journal of Climate, Vol. 14, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<1959:CODAET>2.0.CO;2	journal	May 2001
Homogenization of Daily Temperatures over Canada Vincent, Lucie A.; Zhang, X.; Bonsal, B. R. Journal of Climate, Vol. 15, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1322:HODTOC>2.0.CO;2	journal	June 2002
Impacts and Responses to the 1995 Heat Wave: A Call to Action Changnon, Stanley A.; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Reinke, Beth C. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 77, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<1497:IARTTH>2.0.CO;2	journal	July 1996
An Introduction to Trends in Extreme Weather and Climate Events: Observations, Socioeconomic Impacts, Terrestrial Ecological Impacts, and Model Projections ^* Meehl, Gerald A.; Karl, Thomas; Easterling, David R. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 81, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0413:AITTIE>2.3.CO;2	journal	March 2000
Penalized Maximal F Test for Detecting Undocumented Mean Shift without Trend Change Wang, Xiaolan L. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Vol. 25, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JTECHA982.1	journal	March 2008
Accounting for Autocorrelation in Detecting Mean Shifts in Climate Data Series Using the Penalized Maximal t or F Test Wang, Xiaolan L. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 47, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAMC1741.1	journal	September 2008
New Techniques for the Detection and Adjustment of Shifts in Daily Precipitation Data Series Wang, Xiaolan L.; Chen, Hanfeng; Wu, Yuehua Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 49, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2376.1	journal	December 2010
Temperature Variability over Africa Collins, Jennifer M. Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3753.1	journal	July 2011
Penalized Maximal t Test for Detecting Undocumented Mean Change in Climate Data Series Wang, Xiaolan L.; Wen, Qiuzi H.; Wu, Yuehua Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 46, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2504.1	journal	June 2007
Detection of Regional Surface Temperature Trends Karoly, David J.; Wu, Qigang Journal of Climate, Vol. 18, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3565.1	journal	November 2005
Variability and the Severity of the “Little Dry Season” in Southwestern Nigeria Adejuwon, James O.; Odekunle, Theophilus O. Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3642.1	journal	February 2006
A Method of Homogenizing the Extremes and Mean of Daily Temperature Measurements Della-Marta, P. M.; Wanner, H. Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3855.1	journal	September 2006
Observed and modelled trends in rainfall and temperature for South Africa: 1960–2010 MacKellar, Neil; New, Mark; Jack, Chris South African Journal of Science, Vol. 110, Issue 7/8 https://doi.org/10.1590/sajs.2014/20130353	journal	January 2014
Nonparametric Tests Against Trend Mann, Henry B. Econometrica, Vol. 13, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187	journal	July 1945
Extreme Temperature Variability over High Topography Rehman, Shafiqur; Al-Hadhrami, Luai M.; Mohandes, Mohammed A. Open Journal of Air Pollution, Vol. 01, Issue 01 https://doi.org/10.4236/ojap.2012.11001	journal	January 2012

Similar Records

Seasonal responses of terrestrial ecosystem water‐use efficiency to climate change

Journal Article · Tue Mar 22 20:00:00 EDT 2016 · Global Change Biology · OSTI ID:1400946

High‐frequency daily temperature variability in China and its relationship to large‐scale circulation

Journal Article · Sun Apr 17 20:00:00 EDT 2016 · International Journal of Climatology · OSTI ID:1401200

Trends in extreme temperature over Nigeria from percentile‐based threshold indices

Citation Formats

References (45)

Similar Records

Related Subjects