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Title: Performance Assessment Uncertainty Analysis for Japan's HLW Program Feasibility Study (H12)

Abstract

Most HLW programs in the world recognize that any estimate of long-term radiological performance must be couched in terms of the uncertainties derived from natural variation, changes through time and lack of knowledge about the essential processes. The Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute followed a relatively standard procedure to address two major categories of uncertainty. First, a FEatures, Events and Processes (FEPs) listing, screening and grouping activity was pursued in order to define the range of uncertainty in system processes as well as possible variations in engineering design. A reference and many alternative cases representing various groups of FEPs were defined and individual numerical simulations performed for each to quantify the range of conceptual uncertainty. Second, parameter distributions were developed for the reference case to represent the uncertainty in the strength of these processes, the sequencing of activities and geometric variations. Both point estimates using high and low values for individual parameters as well as a probabilistic analysis were performed to estimate parameter uncertainty. A brief description of the conceptual model uncertainty analysis is presented. This paper focuses on presenting the details of the probabilistic parameter uncertainty assessment.

Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (US); Sandia National Labs., Livermore, CA (US)
Sponsoring Org.:
US Department of Energy (US)
OSTI Identifier:
13966
Report Number(s):
SAND99-2215C
TRN: US0110847
DOE Contract Number:  
AC04-94AL85000
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: ICEM99, Nagoya (JP), 09/26/1999--09/30/1999; Other Information: PBD: 30 Aug 1999
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE WASTES, AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTES FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES; DESIGN; PERFORMANCE; JAPAN; HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTES; DATA COVARIANCES; PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION; RADIOACTIVE WASTE MANAGEMENT

Citation Formats

BABA,T., ISHIGURO,K., ISHIHARA,Y., SAWADA,A., UMEKI,H., WAKASUGI,K., and WEBB,ERIK K.. Performance Assessment Uncertainty Analysis for Japan's HLW Program Feasibility Study (H12). United States: N. p., 1999. Web.
BABA,T., ISHIGURO,K., ISHIHARA,Y., SAWADA,A., UMEKI,H., WAKASUGI,K., & WEBB,ERIK K.. Performance Assessment Uncertainty Analysis for Japan's HLW Program Feasibility Study (H12). United States.
BABA,T., ISHIGURO,K., ISHIHARA,Y., SAWADA,A., UMEKI,H., WAKASUGI,K., and WEBB,ERIK K.. Mon . "Performance Assessment Uncertainty Analysis for Japan's HLW Program Feasibility Study (H12)". United States. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/13966.
@article{osti_13966,
title = {Performance Assessment Uncertainty Analysis for Japan's HLW Program Feasibility Study (H12)},
author = {BABA,T. and ISHIGURO,K. and ISHIHARA,Y. and SAWADA,A. and UMEKI,H. and WAKASUGI,K. and WEBB,ERIK K.},
abstractNote = {Most HLW programs in the world recognize that any estimate of long-term radiological performance must be couched in terms of the uncertainties derived from natural variation, changes through time and lack of knowledge about the essential processes. The Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute followed a relatively standard procedure to address two major categories of uncertainty. First, a FEatures, Events and Processes (FEPs) listing, screening and grouping activity was pursued in order to define the range of uncertainty in system processes as well as possible variations in engineering design. A reference and many alternative cases representing various groups of FEPs were defined and individual numerical simulations performed for each to quantify the range of conceptual uncertainty. Second, parameter distributions were developed for the reference case to represent the uncertainty in the strength of these processes, the sequencing of activities and geometric variations. Both point estimates using high and low values for individual parameters as well as a probabilistic analysis were performed to estimate parameter uncertainty. A brief description of the conceptual model uncertainty analysis is presented. This paper focuses on presenting the details of the probabilistic parameter uncertainty assessment.},
doi = {},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Aug 30 00:00:00 EDT 1999},
month = {Mon Aug 30 00:00:00 EDT 1999}
}

Conference:
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