Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment

Weaver, C. P.; Moss, Richard H.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Gleick, Peter H.; Stern, Paul C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; Wilson, Robyn S.; Arvai, J. L.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa7494

Title: Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment

Journal Article · Fri Jul 21 00:00:00 EDT 2017 · Environmental Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7494· OSTI ID:1393755

Weaver, C. P. ^[1]; Moss, Richard H. ^[2]; Ebi, Kristie L. ^[3]; Gleick, Peter H. ^[4]; Stern, Paul C. ^[5]; Tebaldi, Claudia ^[6]; Wilson, Robyn S. ^[7]; Arvai, J. L. ^[8]

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Triangle Park, NC (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States)
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
Pacific Institute, Oakland, CA (United States)
Social and Environmental Research Institute, Northampton, MA (United States)
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States)
Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. Here, we suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; USEPA

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1393755

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-127975

Journal Information:: Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 8; ISSN 1748-9326

Publisher:: IOP PublishingCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 22 works

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (41)

Sea-level rise scenarios and coastal risk management Hinkel, Jochen; Jaeger, Carlo; Nicholls, Robert J. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2505	journal	February 2015
Understanding and responding to danger from climate change: the role of key risks in the IPCC AR5 Mach, Katharine J.; Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Bilir, T. Eren Climatic Change, Vol. 136, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1645-x	journal	March 2016
Reflections: Uncertainty and Decision Making in Climate Change Economics Heal, G.; Millner, A. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Vol. 8, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/ret023	journal	January 2014
Using decision pathway surveys to inform climate engineering policy choices Gregory, Robin; Satterfield, Terre; Hasell, Ariel Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 113, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1508896113	journal	January 2016
The challenge of climate-change neoskepticism Stern, P. C.; Perkins, J. H.; Sparks, R. E. Science, Vol. 353, Issue 6300 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf6675	journal	August 2016
Engagement in the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment: commitment, capacity, and communication for impact Cloyd, Emily; Moser, Susanne C.; Maibach, Edward Climatic Change, Vol. 135, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1568-y	journal	November 2015
Making climate science more relevant Kennel, C. F.; Briggs, S.; Victor, D. G. Science, Vol. 354, Issue 6311 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aag3248	journal	October 2016
Fat-Tailed Uncertainty in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change Weitzman, M. L. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Vol. 5, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/rer006	journal	June 2011
Knowledge systems for sustainable development Cash, David W.; Clark, William C.; Alcock, Frank Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 100, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1231332100	journal	May 2003
The risk of climate ruin Bettis, Oliver D.; Dietz, Simon; Silver, Nick G. Climatic Change, Vol. 140, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1846-3	journal	November 2016
The Impacts of Climatic Changes for Water Resources of the Colorado and Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basins Gleick, Peter H.; Chalecki, Elizabeth L. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 35, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb04227.x	journal	December 1999
Improving the contribution of climate model information to decision making: the value and demands of robust decision frameworks: The value and demands of robust decision frameworks Weaver, Christopher P.; Lempert, Robert J.; Brown, Casey Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.202	journal	December 2012
The third national climate assessment’s coastal chapter: the making of an integrated assessment Moser, Susanne C.; Davidson, Margaret A. Climatic Change, Vol. 135, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1512-1	journal	September 2015
Risk as Analysis and Risk as Feelings: Some Thoughts about Affect, Reason, Risk, and Rationality Slovic, Paul; Finucane, Melissa L.; Peters, Ellen Risk Analysis, Vol. 24, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00433.x	journal	April 2004
Make climate-change assessments more relevant Hallegatte, Stéphane; Mach, Katharine J. Nature, Vol. 534, Issue 7609 https://doi.org/10.1038/534613a	journal	June 2016
Science, risk, and public policy Ruckelshaus, W. Science, Vol. 221, Issue 4615 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.6879200	journal	September 1983
SCIENCE AND SOCIETY: Framing Science Nisbet, M. C.; Mooney, C. Science, Vol. 316, Issue 5821 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1142030	journal	April 2007
State of the literature on the economic impacts of climate change in the United States Neumann, James E.; Strzepek, Kenneth Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Vol. 5, Issue 03 https://doi.org/10.1515/jbca-2014-9003	journal	December 2014
Challenges in applying the paradigm of welfare economics to climate change Sussman, Fran; Weaver, Christopher P.; Grambsch, Anne Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Vol. 5, Issue 03 https://doi.org/10.1515/jbca-2014-9001	journal	December 2014
Science to prevent disasters de Perez, Erin Coughlan; Monasso, Fleur; van Aalst, Maarten Nature Geoscience, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2081	journal	January 2014
Robust adaptation to climate change Wilby, Robert L.; Dessai, Suraje Weather, Vol. 65, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.543	journal	June 2010
Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Miguel, Edward Nature, Vol. 527, Issue 7577 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15725	journal	October 2015
Actionable Knowledge for Environmental Decision Making: Broadening the Usability of Climate Science Kirchhoff, Christine J.; Carmen Lemos, Maria; Dessai, Suraje Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Vol. 38, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-022112-112828	journal	October 2013
Building a sustained climate assessment process Buizer, James L.; Dow, Kirstin; Black, Mary E. Climatic Change, Vol. 135, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1501-4	journal	September 2015
Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe Ciscar, J. -C.; Iglesias, A.; Feyen, L. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 108, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1011612108	journal	January 2011
The shape of impacts to come: lessons and opportunities for adaptation from uneven increases in global and regional temperatures Ebi, Kristie L.; Ziska, Lewis H.; Yohe, Gary W. Climatic Change, Vol. 139, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1816-9	journal	October 2016
The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change Raimi, Kaitlin T.; Stern, Paul C.; Maki, Alexander PLOS ONE, Vol. 12, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0171130	journal	January 2017
The Structure of Economic Modeling of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change: Grafting Gross Underestimation of Risk onto Already Narrow Science Models Stern, Nicholas Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 51, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.51.3.838	journal	September 2013
Temporal and spatial changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards Cutter, S. L.; Finch, C. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 105, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0710375105	journal	February 2008
Potential impacts of increased coastal flooding in California due to sea-level rise Heberger, Matthew; Cooley, Heather; Herrera, Pablo Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue S1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0308-1	journal	November 2011
From global change science to action with social sciences Weaver, C. P.; Mooney, S.; Allen, D. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2319	journal	July 2014
Risk management and climate change Kunreuther, Howard; Heal, Geoffrey; Allen, Myles Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1740	journal	March 2013
The realities of risk-cost-benefit analysis Fischhoff, B. Science, Vol. 350, Issue 6260 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa6516	journal	October 2015
Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions Michalak, A. M.; Anderson, E. J.; Beletsky, D. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 110, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1216006110	journal	April 2013
Moving toward the Deliberate Coproduction of Climate Science Knowledge Meadow, Alison M.; Ferguson, Daniel B.; Guido, Zack Weather, Climate, and Society, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-14-00050.1	journal	April 2015
Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama? Brysse, Keynyn; Oreskes, Naomi; O’Reilly, Jessica Global Environmental Change, Vol. 23, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.008	journal	February 2013
From the extreme to the mean: Acceleration and tipping points of coastal inundation from sea level rise: SWEET AND PARK Sweet, William V.; Park, Joseph Earth's Future, Vol. 2, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014ef000272	journal	December 2014
The co-production of science and policy in integrated climate assessments Lemos, Maria Carmen; Morehouse, Barbara J. Global Environmental Change, Vol. 15, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.09.004	journal	April 2005
High-consequence outcomes and internal disagreements: tell us more, please Socolow, Robert H. Climatic Change, Vol. 108, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0187-5	journal	August 2011
Adaptive Management of the Global Climate Problem: Bridging the Gap Between Climate Research and Climate Policy Arvai, Joseph; Bridge, Gavin; Dolsak, Nives Climatic Change, Vol. 78, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9094-6	journal	September 2006
What’s the Worst Case? The Methodology of Possibilistic Prediction Betz, Gregor Analyse & Kritik, Vol. 32, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1515/auk-2010-0105	journal	May 2010

Cited By (15)

Enhancing the Practical Utility of Risk Assessments in Climate Change Adaptation Connelly, Angela; Carter, Jeremy; Handley, John Sustainability, Vol. 10, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.3390/su10051399	journal	May 2018
Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable Hall, John A.; Weaver, Christopher P.; Obeysekera, Jayantha Figshare https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.7624796	text	January 2019
Heat-Related Health Impacts under Scenarios of Climate and Population Change Morefield, Philip; Fann, Neal; Grambsch, Anne International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 15, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15112438	journal	November 2018
Reframing Future Risks of Extreme Heat in the United States Wobus, C.; Zarakas, C.; Malek, P. Earth's Future, Vol. 6, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018ef000943	journal	September 2018
How normative interpretations of climate risk assessment affect local decision-making: an exploratory study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland McDermott, T. K. J.; Surminski, S. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 376, Issue 2121 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0300	journal	April 2018
Bluetongue risk under future climates Jones, Anne E.; Turner, Joanne; Caminade, Cyril Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0376-6	journal	January 2019
Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders Challinor, Andy J.; Adger, W. Neil; Benton, Tim G. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 376, Issue 2121 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0301	journal	April 2018
Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable Hall, John A.; Weaver, Christopher P.; Obeysekera, Jayantha Figshare https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.7624796.v1	text	January 2019
Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable Hall, John A.; Weaver, Christopher P.; Obeysekera, Jayantha Taylor & Francis https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.7624796.v2	text	January 2019
Shifting echo chambers in US climate policy networks Jasny, Lorien; Dewey, Amanda M.; Robertson, Anya Galli PLOS ONE, Vol. 13, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0203463	journal	September 2018
Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy Brown, Iain Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 376, Issue 2121 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0297	journal	April 2018
Spatial Assessment of Climate Risk for Investigating Climate Adaptation Strategies by Evaluating Spatial-Temporal Variability of Extreme Precipitation Jhong, Bing-Chen; Huang, Jung; Tung, Ching-Pin Water Resources Management, Vol. 33, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-019-02306-8	journal	June 2019
Uncertainty representations of mean sea-level change: a telephone game? van der Pol, Thomas David; Hinkel, Jochen Climatic Change, Vol. 152, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2359-z	journal	January 2019
Informing Future Risks of Record‐Level Rainfall in the United States Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Wobus, Cameron; Mills, Dave Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl082362	journal	April 2019
Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable Hall, John A.; Weaver, Christopher P.; Obeysekera, Jayantha Coastal Management, Vol. 47, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2019.1551012	journal	January 2019

Similar Records

Climate Information Needs for Financial Decision Making

Technical Report · Tue Nov 19 00:00:00 EST 2013 · OSTI ID:1393755

Higgins, Paul

Uncertainties in the link between global climate change and predicted health risks from pollution: Hexachlorobenzene (HCB) case study using a fugacity model

Journal Article · Sat Jun 01 00:00:00 EDT 1996 · Risk Analysis · OSTI ID:1393755

McKone, T E; Daniels, J I; Goldman, M

Embedding climate change risk assessment within a governance context

Conference · Sat Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2011 · OSTI ID:1393755

Preston, Benjamin L

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
climate
assessments
risk framing

Title: Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment

Citation Formats

References (41)

Cited By (15)

Similar Records

Related Subjects