Modeling the impacts of wood pellet demand on forest dynamics in southeastern United States
[1];
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Department of Energy &, Resources Utrecht University Netherlands
- College of Natural Resources, Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources North Carolina State University Raleigh NC USA
- Environmental Sciences Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory TN USA
- Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geosciences Utrecht University Netherlands
- Center for Energy and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science and Engineering University of Groningen Netherlands
Here, the export of wood pellets from the southeastern United States (USA) has grown significantly in recent years, following rising demand from Europe. Increased wood pellet demand could lead to spatially variable changes in timberland management and area in the USA. This study presents an assessment of the impacts of increasing wood pellet demand (an additional 11.6 Mt by 2030) on land–use dynamics, taking into account developments in other wood product markets as well as expected changes in other land uses. An economic model for the forest sector of the southeastern USA (SRTS) was linked to a land–use change model (PLUC) to identify potential locations of land–use change following scenarios of demand for pellets and other wood products. Projections show that in the absence of additional demand for wood pellets, natural timberland area is projected to decline by 450–15 000 km2 by 2030, mainly through urbanization and pine plantation establishment. Under the high wood pellet demand scenario, more (2000–7500 km2) natural timberland area is retained and more (8000–20 000 km2) pine plantation is established. Shifts from natural timberland to pine plantation occur predominantly in the Atlantic coastal region. Future work will assess the impact of projected transitions in natural timberland and pine plantations on biodiversity and carbon storage. This modeling framework can be applied for multiple scenarios and land–use projections to identify locations of timberland area changes for the whole southeastern USA, thereby informing the debate about potential impacts of wood pellet demand on land–use dynamics and environmental services.
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-00OR22725
- OSTI ID:
- 1390375
- Alternate ID(s):
- OSTI ID: 1390378; OSTI ID: 1468272
- Journal Information:
- Biofuels, Bioproducts & Biorefining, Journal Name: Biofuels, Bioproducts & Biorefining Vol. 11 Journal Issue: 6; ISSN 1932-104X
- Publisher:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)Copyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United Kingdom
- Language:
- English
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