Uncertainty analyses of unsaturated zone travel time at Yucca Mountain
- Pacific Northwest labs., Richland, WA (US)
Uncertainty analysis method can be applied to numerical models of ground-water flow to estimate the relative importance of physical and hydrologic input variables with respect to ground-water travel time. Monte Carlo numerical simulations of unsaturated flow in the Calico Hills nonwelded zeolitic (CHnz) layer at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, indicate that variability in recharge, and to a lesser extent in matrix porosity, explains most of the variability in predictions of water travel time through the unsaturated zone. Variations in saturated hydraulic conductivity and unsaturated curve-fitting parameters were not statistically significant in explaining variability in water travel time through the unsaturated CHnz unit. The results of this study suggest that the large uncertainty associated with recharge rate estimates for the Yucca Mountain site is of concern because the performance of the potential repository would be more sensitive to uncertainty in recharge than to any other parameter evaluated. These results are not exhaustive because of the limited site characterization data available and because of the preliminary nature of this study, which is limited to a single stratigraphic unit, one dimension, and does not account for fracture flow or other potential fast pathways at Yucca Mountain.
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC06-76RL01830
- OSTI ID:
- 138756
- Journal Information:
- Ground Water, Journal Name: Ground Water Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 31; ISSN GRWAAP; ISSN 0017-467X
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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