Recurrence models of volcanic events: Applications to volcanic risk assessment

Conference · Sun Mar 01 04:00:00 EST 1992

OSTI ID:138347

Crowe, B M ^[1]; Picard, R; Valentine, G ^[2]; Perry, F V ^[3]

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1. Los Alamos National Lab., Las Vegas, NV (United States)
2. Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)
3. New Mexico Univ., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

An assessment of the risk of future volcanism has been conducted for isolation of high-level radioactive waste at the potential Yucca Mountain site in southern Nevada. Risk used in this context refers to a combined assessment of the probability and consequences of future volcanic activity. Past studies established bounds on the probability of magmatic disruption of a repository. These bounds were revised as additional data were gathered from site characterization studies. The probability of direct intersection of a potential repository located in an eight km{sup 2} area of Yucca Mountain by ascending basalt magma was bounded by the range of 10{sup {minus}8} to 10{sup {minus}10} yr{sup {minus}1 2}. The consequences of magmatic disruption of a repository were estimated in previous studies to be limited. The exact releases from such an event are dependent on the strike of an intruding basalt dike relative to the repository geometry, the timing of the basaltic event relative to the age of the radioactive waste and the mechanisms of release and dispersal of the waste radionuclides in the accessible environment. The combined low probability of repository disruption and the limited releases associated with this event established the basis for the judgement that the risk of future volcanism was relatively low. It was reasoned that that risk of future volcanism was not likely to result in disqualification of the potential Yucca Mountain site.

• Research Organization: Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-36
• OSTI ID: 138347
• Report Number(s): LA-UR--92-377; CONF-920430--64; ON: DE92008443
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

05 NUCLEAR FUELS
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
58 GEOSCIENCES
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS
MAGMATISM
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
NEVADA TEST SITE
POISSON EQUATION
PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION
RADIOACTIVE WASTE DISPOSAL
RADIONUCLIDE MIGRATION
RISK ASSESSMENT
SEISMIC EVENTS
VOLCANISM
YUCCA MOUNTAIN
Yucca Mountain Project