Estimating the Economic Impact of a Repository from Scenario-Based Surveys: Models of the Relation of Stated Intent to Actual Behavior
- Univ. of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA (United States)
The task of estimating the economic impact of a facility as novel and long-lived as a high-level nuclear waste (HLNW) repository is fraught with uncertainty. One approach to the forecasting problems is to survey economic agents as to how they would respond when confronted with hypothetical repository scenarios. A series of such studies conducted for the state of Nevada have examined the potential impact of a Yucca Mountain repository on behavior such as planning conventions, attending conventions, vacationing, outmigration, immigration, and business location. In each case, respondents drawn from a target population report on whether a particular repository event (either some form of an accident, or simply the presence of the facility) would cause them to act any differently than they otherwise would. The responses to such a survey provide an indication of whether or not economic behavior would be altered. However, the analysis is inevitably plagued with the question of how much credence to place in the reports of intended behavior; can we believe what people report they would do in a hypothetical situation? The present study examines a more precise version of this question regarding the validity of stated intent data. After reviewing a variety of literature in the area of intent versus actual behavior, we provide an answer to the question, "What levels of actual behavior are consistent with the intent data that have been observed in the repository surveys?" More formally, we assume that we are generally interested in predicting the proportion of a sample who will actually perform a target behavior.
- Research Organization:
- Nevada Nuclear Waste Project Office, Carson City, NV (United States); Univ. of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- FG08-85NV10461
- OSTI ID:
- 138024
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/NV/10461-T42; NWPO-SE-035-90; ON: DE91008214; TRN: 91:008408
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: PBD: Dec 1990
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Forecasting behavioral response to a repository from stated intent data
Related Subjects
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTES FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES
PUBLIC OPINION
STATISTICAL MODELS
HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTES
UNDERGROUND DISPOSAL
RADIOACTIVE WASTE FACILITIES
SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS
NEVADA
YUCCA MOUNTAIN
ECONOMICS
SURVEYS
ECONOMIC IMPACT
BEHAVIOR
ATTITUDES
FORECASTING
RADIOACTIVE WASTE DISPOSAL
Yucca Mountain Project