Attributing Historical Changes in Probabilities of Record-Breaking Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Events
- National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan). Center for Global Environmental Research
- Meteorological Research Inst., Tsukuba (Japan)
- Univ. of Tokyo (Japan). Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Computational Research Division
- Univ. of Tsukuba (Japan). Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences
- Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama (Japan)
- Univ. of Tokyo (Japan). Atmosphere and Ocean Research Inst.
Here, we describe two unprecedented large (100-member), longterm (61-year) ensembles based on MRI-AGCM3.2, which were driven by historical and non-warming climate forcing. These ensembles comprise the "Database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF)". We compare these ensembles to large ensembles based on another climate model, as well as to observed data, to investigate the influence of anthropogenic activities on historical changes in the numbers of record-breaking events, including: the annual coldest daily minimum temperature (TNn), the annual warmest daily maximum temperature (TXx) and the annual most intense daily precipitation event (Rx1day). These two climate model ensembles indicate that human activity has already had statistically significant impacts on the number of record-breaking extreme events worldwide mainly in the Northern Hemisphere land. Specifically, human activities have altered the likelihood that a wider area globally would suffer record-breaking TNn, TXx and Rx1day events than that observed over the 2001- 2010 period by a factor of at least 0.6, 5.4 and 1.3, respectively. However, we also find that the estimated spatial patterns and amplitudes of anthropogenic impacts on the probabilities of record-breaking events are sensitive to the climate model and/or natural-world boundary conditions used in the attribution studies.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231
- OSTI ID:
- 1378974
- Journal Information:
- Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere, Vol. 12, Issue 0; ISSN 1349-6476
- Publisher:
- Meteorological Society of JapanCopyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Web of Science
Variability and trends in record air temperature events of Turkey and their associations with atmospheric oscillations and anomalous circulation patterns
|
journal | August 2018 |
Crop production losses associated with anthropogenic climate change for 1981-2010 compared with preindustrial levels
|
journal | August 2018 |
Contribution of Historical Global Warming to Local‐Scale Heavy Precipitation in Western Japan Estimated by Large Ensemble High‐Resolution Simulations
|
journal | June 2019 |
Evidence of crop production losses in West Africa due to historical global warming in two crop models
|
journal | September 2019 |
Similar Records
Attribution of the July–August 2013 heat event in Central and Eastern China to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
Changing seasonality of moderate and extreme precipitation events in the Alps