Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake

Keenan, Trevor F.; Prentice, I. Colin; Canadell, Josep G.; Williams, Christopher A.; Wang, Han; Raupach, Michael; Collatz, G. James

doi:10.1038/ncomms13428

Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO₂ due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake

Journal Article · Tue Nov 08 04:00:00 EST 2016 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13428· OSTI ID:1377575

^[1]; Prentice, I. Colin ^[2]; Canadell, Josep G. ^[3]; Williams, Christopher A. ^[4]; ^[5]; Raupach, Michael ^[3]; Collatz, G. James ^[6]

Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States), Earth Sciences Division; Macquarie Univ., NSW (Australia)
Macquarie Univ., NSW (Australia); Imperial College, London (United Kingdom)
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Dickson ACT (Australia)
Clark Univ., Worcester, MA (United States)
Macquarie Univ., NSW (Australia); Northwest A & F Univ., Yanling (China)
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)

Terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in the global carbon cycle and offset a large fraction of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. The terrestrial carbon sink is increasing, yet the mechanisms responsible for its enhancement, and implications for the growth rate of atmospheric CO₂, remain unclear. Here using global carbon budget estimates, ground, atmospheric and satellite observations, and multiple global vegetation models, we report a recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO₂, and a decline in the fraction of anthropogenic emissions that remain in the atmosphere, despite increasing anthropogenic emissions. We also attribute the observed decline to increases in the terrestrial sink during the past decade, associated with the effects of rising atmospheric CO₂ on vegetation and the slowdown in the rate of warming on global respiration. Furthermore, the pause in the atmospheric CO₂ growth rate provides further evidence of the roles of CO₂ fertilization and warming-induced respiration, and highlights the need to protect both existing carbon stocks and regions, where the sink is growing rapidly.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; FG02-04ER63917; FG02-04ER63911; SC0006708

OSTI ID:: 1377575

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Vol. 7; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Nitrogen and phosphorus constrain the CO2 fertilization of global plant biomass Terrer, César; Jackson, Robert B.; Prentice, I. Colin Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0545-2	journal	August 2019
Recent divergence in the contributions of tropical and boreal forests to the terrestrial carbon sink Tagesson, Torbern; Schurgers, Guy; Horion, Stéphanie Nature Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 4, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-019-1090-0	journal	January 2020
Lower land-use emissions responsible for increased net land carbon sink during the slow warming period Piao, Shilong; Huang, Mengtian; Liu, Zhuo Nature Geoscience, Vol. 11, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0204-7	journal	August 2018
Field-experiment constraints on the enhancement of the terrestrial carbon sink by CO2 fertilization Liu, Yongwen; Piao, Shilong; Gasser, Thomas Nature Geoscience, Vol. 12, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0436-1	journal	September 2019
Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests Hubau, Wannes; Lewis, Simon L.; Phillips, Oliver L. Nature, Vol. 579, Issue 7797 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2035-0	journal	March 2020
Increased vegetation growth and carbon stock in China karst via ecological engineering Tong, Xiaowei; Brandt, Martin; Yue, Yuemin Nature Sustainability, Vol. 1, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-017-0004-x	journal	January 2018
China and India lead in greening of the world through land-use management Chen, Chi; Park, Taejin; Wang, Xuhui Nature Sustainability, Vol. 2, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0220-7	journal	February 2019
Characteristics, drivers and feedbacks of global greening Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Park, Taejin Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Vol. 1, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-019-0001-x	journal	December 2019
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Decadal trends in the ocean carbon sink DeVries, Tim; Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrews, Oliver Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900371116	journal	May 2019
The impact of rising CO ₂ and acclimation on the response of US forests to global warming Sperry, John S.; Venturas, Martin D.; Todd, Henry N. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 116, Issue 51 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1913072116	journal	November 2019
Photosynthetic productivity and its efficiencies in ISIMIP2a biome models: benchmarking for impact assessment studies Ito, Akihiko; Nishina, Kazuya; Reyer, Christopher P. O. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a19	journal	July 2017
Atmospheric teleconnection influence on North American land surface phenology Dannenberg, Matthew P.; Wise, Erika K.; Janko, Mark Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa85a	journal	March 2018
Non-uniform seasonal warming regulates vegetation greening and atmospheric CO ₂ amplification over northern lands Li, Zhao; Xia, Jianyang; Ahlström, Anders Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aae9ad	journal	November 2018
Coupling between the terrestrial carbon and water cycles—a review Gentine, Pierre; Green, Julia K.; Guérin, Marceau Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab22d6	journal	July 2019
Increasing interannual variability of global vegetation greenness Chen, Chen; He, Bin; Yuan, Wenping Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4ffc	journal	November 2019
Altered trends in carbon uptake in China's terrestrial ecosystems under the enhanced summer monsoon and warming hiatus He, Honglin; Wang, Shaoqiang; Zhang, Li National Science Review, Vol. 6, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwz021	journal	February 2019
A successful prediction of the record CO ₂ rise associated with the 2015/2016 El Niño Betts, Richard A.; Jones, Chris D.; Knight, Jeff. R. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 373, Issue 1760 https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2017.0301	journal	October 2018
The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on global photosynthesis using satellite remote sensing Luo, Xiangzhong; Keenan, Trevor F.; Fisher, Joshua B. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 373, Issue 1760 https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2017.0409	journal	October 2018
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Dominant regions and drivers of the variability of the global land carbon sink across timescales Zhang, Xuanze; Wang, Ying-Ping; Peng, Shushi Global Change Biology, Vol. 24, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14275	journal	May 2018
Regime shifts of Mediterranean forest carbon uptake and reduced resilience driven by multidecadal ocean surface temperatures Carnicer, Jofre; Domingo‐Marimon, Cristina; Ninyerola, Miquel Global Change Biology, Vol. 25, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14664	journal	May 2019
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Drivers and mechanisms of tree mortality in moist tropical forests McDowell, Nate; Allen, Craig D.; Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina New Phytologist, Vol. 219, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.15027	journal	February 2018
Modelling carbon sources and sinks in terrestrial vegetation Fatichi, Simone; Pappas, Christoforos; Zscheischler, Jakob New Phytologist, Vol. 221, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.15451	journal	September 2018
Contrasting carbon cycle responses of the tropical continents to the 2015–2016 El Niño Liu, Junjie; Bowman, Kevin W.; Schimel, David S. Science, Vol. 358, Issue 6360 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aam5690	journal	October 2017
Episodic Arctic CO2 Limitation in the West Svalbard Shelf Sanz-Martín, Marina; Chierici, Melissa; Mesa, Elena Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol. 5 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2018.00221	journal	July 2018
Impact Assessment of Ozone Absorbed through Stomata on Photosynthetic Carbon Dioxide Uptake by Japanese Deciduous Forest Trees: Implications for Ozone Mitigation Policies Kinose, Yoshiyuki; Yamaguchi, Masahiro; Matsumura, Hideyuki Forests, Vol. 11, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.3390/f11020137	journal	January 2020
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Coupling between the terrestrial carbon and water cycles-a review Gentine, Pierre; Green, Julia K.; Guérin, Marceau ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000359131	text	January 2019
Pervasive decreases in living vegetation carbon turnover time across forest climate zones Yu, Kailiang; Smith, William K.; Trugman, Anna T. ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000385669	text	January 2019
Diagnosing spatial error structures in CO₂ mole fractions and XCO₂ column mole fractions from atmospheric transport Lauvaux, Thomas; Díaz-Isaac, Liza I.; Bocquet, Marc Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12007-2019	journal	January 2019
Global carbon budgets estimated from atmospheric O 2 ∕N 2 and CO 2 observations in the western Pacific region over a 15-year period Tohjima, Yasunori; Mukai, Hitoshi; Machida, Toshinobu Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9269-2019	journal	January 2019
On the diurnal, weekly, and seasonal cycles and annual trends in atmospheric CO ₂ at Mount Zugspitze, Germany, during 1981–2016 Yuan, Ye; Ries, Ludwig; Petermeier, Hannes Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-999-2019	journal	January 2019
Legacies of past land use have a stronger effect on forest carbon exchange than future climate change in a temperate forest landscape Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Garstenauer, Rita Biogeosciences, Vol. 15, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5699-2018	journal	January 2018
Global atmospheric CO ₂ inverse models converging on neutral tropical land exchange, but disagreeing on fossil fuel and atmospheric growth rate Gaubert, Benjamin; Stephens, Britton B.; Basu, Sourish Biogeosciences, Vol. 16, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-117-2019	journal	January 2019
Trend analysis of the airborne fraction and sink rate of anthropogenically released CO₂ Bennedsen, Mikkel; Hillebrand, Eric; Koopman, Siem Jan Biogeosciences, Vol. 16, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3651-2019	journal	January 2019
Investigating the applicability of emergent constraints Winkler, Alexander J.; Myneni, Ranga B.; Brovkin, Victor Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 10, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-501-2019	journal	January 2019
The biomass burning contribution to climate–carbon-cycle feedback Harrison, Sandy P.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Brovkin, Victor Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-663-2018	journal	January 2018
P-model v1.0: an optimality-based light use efficiency model for simulating ecosystem gross primary production Stocker, Benjamin D.; Wang, Han; Smith, Nicholas G. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 13, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1545-2020	journal	January 2020
Land use change and El Niño-Southern Oscillation drive decadal carbon balance shifts in Southeast Asia Kondo, Masayuki; Ichii, Kazuhito; Patra, Prabir K. Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000082232	text	January 2018
Thinning Can Reduce Losses in Carbon Use Efficiency and Carbon Stocks in Managed Forests Under Warmer Climate Collalti, Alessio; Trotta, Carlo; Keenan, Trevor F. Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000088298	text	January 2018
Increased atmospheric vapor pressure deficit reduces global vegetation growth Yuan, Wenping; Zheng, Yi; Piao, Shilong American Association for the Advancement of Science https://doi.org/10.7892/boris.141545	text	January 2019

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