High-end climate change impact on European runoff and low flows – exploring the effects of forcing biases

Papadimitriou, Lamprini V.; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Grillakis, Manolis G.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.

doi:10.5194/hess-20-1785-2016

Title: High-end climate change impact on European runoff and low flows – exploring the effects of forcing biases

Journal Article · Tue May 10 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Online)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1785-2016· OSTI ID:1375769

Papadimitriou, Lamprini V. ^[1]; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G. ^[1]; Grillakis, Manolis G. ^[1]; Tsanis, Ioannis K. ^[2]

Technical Univ. of Crete, Chania (Greece)
Technical Univ. of Crete, Chania (Greece); McMaster Univ., Hamilton, ON (Canada)

Climate models project a much more substantial warming than the 2 °C target under the more probable emission scenarios, making higher-end scenarios increasingly plausible. Freshwater availability under such conditions is a key issue of concern. In this study, an ensemble of Euro-CORDEX projections under RCP8.5 is used to assess the mean and low hydrological states under +4 °C of global warming for the European region. Five major European catchments were analysed in terms of future drought climatology and the impact of +2 °C versus +4 °C global warming was investigated. The effect of bias correction of the climate model outputs and the observations used for this adjustment was also quantified. Projections indicate an intensification of the water cycle at higher levels of warming. Even for areas where the average state may not considerably be affected, low flows are expected to reduce, leading to changes in the number of dry days and thus drought climatology. The identified increasing or decreasing runoff trends are substantially intensified when moving from the +2 to the +4° of global warming. Bias correction resulted in an improved representation of the historical hydrology. Moreover, it is also found that the selection of the observational data set for the application of the bias correction has an impact on the projected signal that could be of the same order of magnitude to the selection of the Global Climate Model (GCM).

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Research Organization:: Office of Scientific and Technical Information, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: 603864

OSTI ID:: 1375769

Journal Information:: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Online), Vol. 20, Issue 5; ISSN 1607-7938

Publisher:: European Geosciences Union (EGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 42 works

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Title: High-end climate change impact on European runoff and low flows – exploring the effects of forcing biases

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