The impacts of meeting a tight CO2 performance standard on the electric power sector
This paper presents innovative modeling of complex interactions among gas-fired generators, coal-fired power plants, and renewables (wind and solar) when pushed hard to reduce CO2 emissions. A hypothetical CO2 technology performance standard, giving rise to a shadow price on CO2 emissions, was specified as part of the study design. In this work we see gas generation rapidly replacing coal generation. To understand the fate of coal based generation, it is important to examine trends at a granular level. An important feature of our model, the Electricity Supply and Investment Model (ESIM) is that it contains a unit inventory with unit characteristics and a memory of how each unit is operated over time. Cycling damages that individual coal units incur are a function of cumulative wear and tear over time. The expected remaining life of a cycled coal unit will depend on the severity of the cycling and for how many years. Deteriorating operating characteristics of a cycled unit over time results in higher operating costs, slipping down the dispatch loading order, and hence an acceleration of cycling damage, that is, a viscous circle of decline. The rate of CFPP retirements will increase for lower gas prices, higher price on CO2 emissions, and greater penetration of variable and intermittent renewables. Published by Elsevier B.V.
- Research Organization:
- Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Fossil Energy (FE)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC02-06CH11357
- OSTI ID:
- 1373895
- Journal Information:
- Energy Economics, Vol. 60; ISSN 0140-9883
- Publisher:
- Elsevier
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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