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Title: Understanding Flood Seasonality and Its Temporal Shifts within the Contiguous United States

Journal Article · · Journal of Hydrometeorology
 [1];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [1];  [4];  [5]
  1. Zhejiang Univ., Hangzhou (China)
  2. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  3. China Three Gorges Univ., Yichang (China); Wuhan Univ., (China)
  4. Washington State Univ., Tri-Cities, Richland, WA (United States)
  5. Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States)
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Understanding the causes of flood seasonality is critical for better flood management. This study reported herein examines the seasonality of annual maximum floods (AMF) and its changes before and after 1980 at over 250 natural catchments across the contiguous United States. Using circular statistics to define a seasonality index, the analysis focuses on the variability of the flood occurrence date. Generally, catchments with more synchronized seasonal water and energy cycles largely inherit their seasonality of AMF from that of annual maximum rainfall (AMR). In contrast, the seasonality of AMF in catchments with loosely synchronized water and energy cycles are more influenced by high antecedent storage, which is responsible for the amplification of the seasonality of AMF over that of AMR. This understanding then effectively explains a statistically significant shift of flood seasonality detected in some catchments in the recent decades. Catchments where the antecedent soil water storage has increased since 1980 exhibit increasing flood seasonality while catchments that have experienced increases in storm rainfall before the floods have shifted toward floods occurring more variably across the seasons. In the eastern catchments, a concurrent widespread increase in event rainfall magnitude and reduced soil water storage have led to a more variable timing of floods. The findings of the role of antecedent storage and event rainfall on the flood seasonality provide useful insights for understanding future changes in flood seasonality as climate models projected changes in extreme precipitation and aridity over land.

Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC); USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830; 51379184; 51509218; KP1703010; 51509141
OSTI ID:
1372005
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-126412; KP1703010; KP1703030; KP1703010
Journal Information:
Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 18, Issue 7; ISSN 1525-755X
Publisher:
American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 38 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Cited By (6)

Flood Inundation Generation Mechanisms and Their Changes in 1953–2004 in Global Major River Basins journal November 2019
River flood seasonality in the Northeast United States: Characterization and trends journal January 2019
Using a Scenario‐Neutral Framework to Avoid Potential Maladaptation to Future Flood Risk journal February 2019
Spatial patterns and characteristics of flood seasonality in Europe journal January 2018
Analysis of persistence in the flood timing and the role of catchment wetness on flood generation in a large river basin in India journal August 2019
Global‐Scale Prediction of Flood Timing Using Atmospheric Reanalysis journal January 2020

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Related Subjects

58 GEOSCIENCES
Watersheds
Climate classification/regimes
Seasonal variability