Sino‐French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University Beijing China, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de 1'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ Gif sur Yvette France
Sino‐French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University Beijing China
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de 1'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ Gif sur Yvette France
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de 1'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ Gif sur Yvette France, UPMC, CNRS, EPHE Sorbonne Universités Paris France
UMR Eco&,Sols INRA Montpellier France
Research Group of Plant and Vegetation Ecology (PLECO), Department of Biology University of Antwerp Antwerp Belgium
CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF‐CSIC‐UAB Catalonia Spain, CREAF Catalonia Spain
Sino‐French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University Beijing China, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China
Institute on Ecosystems and the Department of Ecology Montana State University Bozeman Montana USA
Oak Ridge National Lab Oak Ridge Tennessee USA
Shenzhen Graduate School Peking University Shenzhen China
Most of the Earth System Models ( ESMs ) project increases in net primary productivity ( NPP ) and terrestrial carbon (C) storage during the 21st century. Despite empirical evidence that limited availability of phosphorus (P) may limit the response of NPP to increasing atmospheric CO 2 , none of the ESMs used in the previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment accounted for P limitation. We diagnosed from ESM simulations the amount of P need to support increases in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems using two approaches: the demand derived from (1) changes in C stocks and (2) changes in NPP . The C stock‐based additional P demand was estimated to range between −31 and 193 Tg P and between −89 and 262 Tg P for Representative Concentration Pathway ( RCP ) 2.6 and RCP8.5 , respectively, with negative values indicating a P surplus. The NPP ‐based demand, which takes ecosystem P recycling into account, results in a significantly higher P demand of 648–1606 Tg P for RCP2 .6 and 924–2110 Tg P for RCP8 .5. We found that the P demand is sensitive to the turnover of P in decomposing plant material, explaining the large differences between the NPP ‐based demand and C stock‐based demand. The discrepancy between diagnosed P demand and actual P availability (potential P deficit) depends mainly on the assumptions about availability of the different soil P forms. Overall, future P limitation strongly depends on both soil P availability and P recycling on ecosystem scale.
@article{osti_1371595,
author = {Sun, Yan and Peng, Shushi and Goll, Daniel S. and Ciais, Philippe and Guenet, Bertrand and Guimberteau, Matthieu and Hinsinger, Philippe and Janssens, Ivan A. and Peñuelas, Josep and Piao, Shilong and others},
title = {Diagnosing phosphorus limitations in natural terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle models},
annote = {Abstract Most of the Earth System Models ( ESMs ) project increases in net primary productivity ( NPP ) and terrestrial carbon (C) storage during the 21st century. Despite empirical evidence that limited availability of phosphorus (P) may limit the response of NPP to increasing atmospheric CO 2 , none of the ESMs used in the previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment accounted for P limitation. We diagnosed from ESM simulations the amount of P need to support increases in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems using two approaches: the demand derived from (1) changes in C stocks and (2) changes in NPP . The C stock‐based additional P demand was estimated to range between −31 and 193 Tg P and between −89 and 262 Tg P for Representative Concentration Pathway ( RCP ) 2.6 and RCP8.5 , respectively, with negative values indicating a P surplus. The NPP ‐based demand, which takes ecosystem P recycling into account, results in a significantly higher P demand of 648–1606 Tg P for RCP2 .6 and 924–2110 Tg P for RCP8 .5. We found that the P demand is sensitive to the turnover of P in decomposing plant material, explaining the large differences between the NPP ‐based demand and C stock‐based demand. The discrepancy between diagnosed P demand and actual P availability (potential P deficit) depends mainly on the assumptions about availability of the different soil P forms. Overall, future P limitation strongly depends on both soil P availability and P recycling on ecosystem scale. },
doi = {10.1002/2016EF000472},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1371595},
journal = {Earth's Future},
issn = {ISSN 2328-4277},
number = {7},
volume = {5},
place = {United States},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union (AGU)},
year = {2017},
month = {07}}