Vulnerability and cosusceptibility determine the size of network cascades

Yang, Yang; Nishikawa, Takashi; Motter, Adilson E.

doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.048301

Vulnerability and cosusceptibility determine the size of network cascades

Journal Article · Thu Jan 26 23:00:00 EST 2017 · Physical Review Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.048301· OSTI ID:1369629

Yang, Yang ^[1]; Nishikawa, Takashi ^[2]; Motter, Adilson E. ^[2]

Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (United States); Northwestern University
Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (United States)

In a network, a local disturbance can propagate and eventually cause a substantial part of the system to fail in cascade events that are easy to conceptualize but extraordinarily difficult to predict. Furthermore, we develop a statistical framework that can predict cascade size distributions by incorporating two ingredients only: the vulnerability of individual components and the cosusceptibility of groups of components (i.e., their tendency to fail together). Using cascades in power grids as a representative example, we show that correlations between component failures define structured and often surprisingly large groups of cosusceptible components. Aside from their implications for blackout studies, these results provide insights and a new modeling framework for understanding cascades in financial systems, food webs, and complex networks in general.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy (ARPA-E)

Grant/Contract Number:: AR0000702

OSTI ID:: 1369629

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1341322

Journal Information:: Physical Review Letters, Journal Name: Physical Review Letters Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 118; ISSN 0031-9007; ISSN PRLTAO

Publisher:: American Physical Society (APS)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Don’t go chasing artificial waterfalls: Artificial line limits and cascading failures in power grids Bourne, J.; O’Sullivan, A.; Arcaute, E. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Vol. 29, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5115493	journal	November 2019
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Small vulnerable sets determine large network cascades in power grids Yang, Yang; Nishikawa, Takashi; Motter, Adilson E. Science, Vol. 358, Issue 6365 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aan3184	journal	November 2017
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