Observed and Projected Changes to the Precipitation Annual Cycle

Marvel, Kate; Biasutti, Michela; Bonfils, Céline; Taylor, Karl E.; Kushnir, Yochanan; Cook, Benjamin I.

doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0572.1

Title: Observed and Projected Changes to the Precipitation Annual Cycle

Journal Article · Tue Feb 21 00:00:00 EST 2017 · Journal of Climate

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0572.1· OSTI ID:1361945

Marvel, Kate ^[1]; Biasutti, Michela ^[2]; Bonfils, Céline ^[3]; Taylor, Karl E. ^[3]; Kushnir, Yochanan ^[2]; Cook, Benjamin I. ^[4]

Columbia University, and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to cause spatial and temporal shifts in precipitation patterns. These may be apparent in changes to the annual cycle of zonal mean precipitation P. Trends in the amplitude and phase of the P annual cycle in two long-term, global satellite datasets are broadly similar. Model-derived fingerprints of externally forced changes to the amplitude and phase of the P seasonal cycle, combined with these observations, enable a formal detection and attribution analysis. Observed amplitude changes are inconsistent with model estimates of internal variability but not attributable to the model-predicted response to external forcing. This mismatch between observed and predicted amplitude changes is consistent with the sustained La Niña–like conditions that characterize the recent slowdown in the rise of the global mean temperature. However, observed changes to the annual cycle phase do not seem to be driven by this recent hiatus. Furthermore these changes are consistent with model estimates of forced changes, are inconsistent (in one observational dataset) with estimates of internal variability, and may suggest the emergence of an externally forced signal.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0014423; NNX14AB99A; AC52-07NA27344

OSTI ID:: 1361945

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1438734; OSTI ID: 1841345

Report Number(s):: LLNL-JRNL-723540

Journal Information:: Journal of Climate, Journal Name: Journal of Climate Vol. 30 Journal Issue: 13; ISSN 0894-8755

Publisher:: American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 29 works

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