A new look at ocean ventilation time scales and their uncertainties

Fine, Rana A.; Peacock, Synte; Maltrud, Mathew E.; Bryan, Frank O.

doi:10.1002/2016JC012529

A new look at ocean ventilation time scales and their uncertainties

Journal Article · Mon May 08 00:00:00 EDT 2017 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012529· OSTI ID:1355937

^[1]; Peacock, Synte ^[2]; Maltrud, Mathew E. ^[3]; ^[2]

Department of Ocean Sciences University of Miami Miami Florida USA
National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder Colorado USA
Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos New Mexico USA

Abstract

A suite of eddy‐resolving ocean transient tracer model simulations are first compared to observations. Observational and model pCFC‐11 ages agree quite well, with the eddy‐resolving model adding detail. The CFC ages show that the thermocline is a barrier to interior ocean exchange with the atmosphere on time scales of 45 years, the measureable CFC transient, although there are exceptions. Next, model simulations are used to quantify effects on tracer ages of the spatial dependence of internal ocean tracer variability due to stirring from eddies and biases from nonstationarity of the atmospheric transient when there is mixing. These add to tracer age uncertainties and biases, which are large in frontal boundary regions, and small in subtropical gyre interiors. These uncertainties and biases are used to reinterpret observed temporal trends in tracer‐derived ventilation time scales taken from observations more than a decade apart, and to assess whether interpretations of changes in tracer ages being due to changes in ocean ventilation hold water. For the southern hemisphere subtropical gyres, we infer that the rate of ocean ventilation 26–27.2 σ _θ increased between the mid‐1990s and the decade of the 2000s. However, between the mid‐1990s and the decade of the 2010s, there is no significant trend—perhaps except for South Atlantic. Observed age/AOU/ventilation changes are linked to a combination of natural cycles and climate change, and there is regional variability. Thus, for the future it is not clear how strong or steady in space and time ocean ventilation changes will be.

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Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL); Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Science Foundation (NSF) (United States); USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)

Contributing Organization:: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-06NA25396

OSTI ID:: 1355937

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1355938
OSTI ID: 1356159

Report Number(s):: LA-UR-17-23369

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans, Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans Journal Issue: 5 Vol. 122; ISSN 2169-9275

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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