Variability in climate change simulations affects needed long-term riverine nutrient reductions for the Baltic Sea

Bring, Arvid; Rogberg, Peter; Destouni, Georgia

doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0657-5

Title: Variability in climate change simulations affects needed long-term riverine nutrient reductions for the Baltic Sea

Journal Article · Thu May 28 00:00:00 EDT 2015 · Ambio

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-015-0657-5· OSTI ID:1354795

Bring, Arvid ^[1]; Rogberg, Peter ^[2]; Destouni, Georgia ^[2]

Univ. of New Hampshire, Durham, NH (United States). Inst. for the Study of the Earth, Oceans and Space
Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology

Changes to runoff due to climate change may influence management of nutrient loading to the sea. Assuming unchanged river nutrient concentrations, we evaluate the effects of changing runoff on commitments to nutrient reductions under the Baltic Sea Action Plan. For several countries, climate projections point to large variability in load changes in relation to reduction targets. These changes either increase loads, making the target more difficult to reach, or decrease them, leading instead to a full achievement of the target. The impact of variability in climate projections varies with the size of the reduction target and is larger for countries with more limited commitments. Finally, in the end, a number of focused actions are needed to manage the effects of climate change on nutrient loads: reducing uncertainty in climate projections, deciding on frameworks to identify best performing models with respect to land surface hydrology, and increasing efforts at sustained monitoring of water flow changes.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; Stockholm Univ. (Sweden); Swedish Research Council (SRC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-07NA27344

OSTI ID:: 1354795

Journal Information:: Ambio, Vol. 44, Issue S3; ISSN 0044-7447

Publisher:: SpringerCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 13 works

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Dominant Hydro-Climatic Drivers of Water Temperature, Salinity, and Flow Variability for the Large-Scale System of the Baltic Coastal Wetlands Chen, Yuanying; Vigouroux, Guillaume; Bring, Arvid Water, Vol. 11, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.3390/w11030552	journal	March 2019
Contrasting Hydroclimatic Model‐Data Agreements Over the Nordic‐Arctic Region Bring, A.; Goldenberg, R.; Kalantari, Z. Earth's Future, Vol. 7, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ef001296	journal	December 2019
Baltic Sea ecosystem-based management under climate change: Synthesis and future challenges Blenckner, Thorsten; Österblom, Henrik; Larsson, Per AMBIO, Vol. 44, Issue S3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-015-0661-9	journal	May 2015

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