Constructive stochastic temporal reasoning in situation assessment

Journal Article · Mon Aug 01 04:00:00 EDT 1994 · IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1109/21.299695· OSTI ID:135308

Kirillov, V P ^[1]

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1. Ukrainian Acad of Agrarian Sciences, Kharkov (Ukraine)

Situation assessment tasks (SA-tasks) are important in many applications, dealing with real-time environment. Due to poor structure of these tasks, the knowledge-based approach has been studied intensively by many authors. Regrettably, little progress up to now has been achieved because the existing techniques usually neglect the constructive nature of a human expert`s reasoning in a process of a SA-task solving. The latter feature manifests itself in the unconscious creation by an expert of new temporal/spatial patterns which, in a general case, are not present in an explicit form in the processed evidence data. Due to that, the development of a new method enabling one to model constructive reasoning, is rather complicated, the scope of this work has been restricted to the temporal aspect only. In the paper, a mathematical framework, which may be used in a rule-based expert system, reasoning about events in a constructive manner, is presented. Time instances and intervals are treated in detail, using a stochastic approach to represent imprecision. The human expert`s temporal knowledge is considered imprecise in the stochastical sense, as well. Both forward and backward modes of reasoning are studied. Sufficient conditions for consistency of the knowledge model are also derived. The method has been implemented by the author in a feasibility demonstration prototype expert system. 14 refs.

• OSTI ID: 135308
• Journal Information: IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Journal Name: IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Journal Issue: 8 Vol. 24; ISSN ISYMAW; ISSN 0018-9472
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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