Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model

Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Vizcaino, Miren; Fyke, Jeremy Garmeson; van Kampenhout, Leo; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2907-4

Title: Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model

Journal Article · Mon Feb 01 00:00:00 EST 2016 · Climate Dynamics

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2907-4· OSTI ID:1352361

^[1]; Vizcaino, Miren ^[2]; Fyke, Jeremy Garmeson ^[3]; van Kampenhout, Leo ^[1]; van den Broeke, Michiel R. ^[1]

Utrecht Univ., Utrecht (The Netherlands)
Delft Univ. of Technology, Delft (The Netherlands)
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Here, we present climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) as simulated by the global, coupled ocean–atmosphere–land Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a horizontal resolution of ~1° in the past, present and future (1850–2100). CESM correctly simulates present-day Antarctic sea ice extent, large-scale atmospheric circulation and near-surface climate, but fails to simulate the recent expansion of Antarctic sea ice. The present-day Antarctic ice sheet SMB equals 2280 ± 131Gtyear^–1, which concurs with existing independent estimates of AIS SMB. When forced by two CMIP5 climate change scenarios (high mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and high-emission scenario RCP8.5), CESM projects an increase of Antarctic ice sheet SMB of about 70 Gtyear^–1 per degree warming. This increase is driven by enhanced snowfall, which is partially counteracted by more surface melt and runoff along the ice sheet’s edges. This intensifying hydrological cycle is predominantly driven by atmospheric warming, which increases (1) the moisture-carrying capacity of the atmosphere, (2) oceanic source region evaporation, and (3) summer AIS cloud liquid water content.

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Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-06NA25396

OSTI ID:: 1352361

Report Number(s):: LA-UR-15-21974

Journal Information:: Climate Dynamics, Vol. 47, Issue 5-6; ISSN 0930-7575

Publisher:: Springer-VerlagCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 91 works

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Effect of prescribed sea surface conditions on the modern and future Antarctic surface climate simulated by the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model Beaumet, Julien; Déqué, Michel; Krinner, Gerhard The Cryosphere, Vol. 13, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019	journal	January 2019
Interannual variability of summer surface mass balance and surface melting in the Amundsen sector, West Antarctica Donat-Magnin, Marion; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Gallée, Hubert The Cryosphere, Vol. 14, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-229-2020	journal	January 2020
Influence of sea-ice anomalies on Antarctic precipitation using source attribution in the Community Earth System Model Wang, Hailong; Fyke, Jeremy G.; Lenaerts, Jan T. M. The Cryosphere, Vol. 14, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-429-2020	journal	January 2020
Antarctic surface hydrology and impacts on ice-sheet mass balance Bell, Re; Banwell, Alison; Trusel, Ld Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository https://doi.org/10.17863/cam.33005	text	January 2018
Assessing bias corrections of oceanic surface conditions for atmospheric models Beaumet, Julien; Krinner, Gerhard; Déqué, Michel Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-321-2019	journal	January 2019
Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6 Nowicki, Sophie M. J.; Payne, Anthony; Larour, Eric Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016	journal	January 2016
Observationally constrained surface mass balance of Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica Munneke, Peter Kuipers; McGrath, Daniel; Medley, Brooke The Cryosphere https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-44	posted_content	March 2017
Experimental tests of sub-surface reflectors as an explanation for the ANITA anomalous events Smith, D.; Besson, D. Z.; Deaconu, C. Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics, Vol. 2021, Issue 04 https://doi.org/10.1088/1475-7516/2021/04/016	journal	April 2021
How useful is snow accumulation in reconstructing surface air temperature in Antarctica? A study combining ice core records and climate models Dalaiden, Quentin; Goosse, Hugues; Klein, François The Cryosphere, Vol. 14, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020	journal	April 2020
Spatial probabilistic calibration of a high-resolution Amundsen Sea Embayment ice sheet model with satellite altimeter data Wernecke, Andreas; Edwards, Tamsin L.; Nias, Isabel J. The Cryosphere, Vol. 14, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1459-2020	journal	May 2020
Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Donat-Magnin, Marion; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Kittel, Christoph The Cryosphere, Vol. 15, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021	journal	February 2021

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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Title: Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model

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