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Title: An Improved Global Wind Resource Estimate for Integrated Assessment Models: Preprint

Abstract

This paper summarizes initial steps to improving the robustness and accuracy of global renewable resource and techno-economic assessments for use in integrated assessment models. We outline a method to construct country-level wind resource supply curves, delineated by resource quality and other parameters. Using mesoscale reanalysis data, we generate estimates for wind quality, both terrestrial and offshore, across the globe. Because not all land or water area is suitable for development, appropriate database layers provide exclusions to reduce the total resource to its technical potential. We expand upon estimates from related studies by: using a globally consistent data source of uniquely detailed wind speed characterizations; assuming a non-constant coefficient of performance for adjusting power curves for altitude; categorizing the distance from resource sites to the electric power grid; and characterizing offshore exclusions on the basis of sea ice concentrations. The product, then, is technical potential by country, classified by resource quality as determined by net capacity factor. Additional classifications dimensions are available, including distance to transmission networks for terrestrial wind and distance to shore and water depth for offshore. We estimate the total global wind generation potential of 560 PWh for terrestrial wind with 90% of resource classified as low-to-mid quality,more » and 315 PWh for offshore wind with 67% classified as mid-to-high quality. These estimates are based on 3.5 MW composite wind turbines with 90 m hub heights, 0.95 availability, 90% array efficiency, and 5 MW/km2 deployment density in non-excluded areas. We compare the underlying technical assumption and results with other global assessments.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of International Climate and Technology
OSTI Identifier:
1344760
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-6A20-65323
DOE Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
17 WIND ENERGY; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; wind; supply curve; resource assessment; technical potential; integrated assessment model; global

Citation Formats

Eurek, Kelly, Sullivan, Patrick, Gleason, Michael, Hettinger, Dylan, Heimiller, Donna, and Lopez, Anthony. An Improved Global Wind Resource Estimate for Integrated Assessment Models: Preprint. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.2172/1344760.
Eurek, Kelly, Sullivan, Patrick, Gleason, Michael, Hettinger, Dylan, Heimiller, Donna, & Lopez, Anthony. An Improved Global Wind Resource Estimate for Integrated Assessment Models: Preprint. United States. doi:10.2172/1344760.
Eurek, Kelly, Sullivan, Patrick, Gleason, Michael, Hettinger, Dylan, Heimiller, Donna, and Lopez, Anthony. Wed . "An Improved Global Wind Resource Estimate for Integrated Assessment Models: Preprint". United States. doi:10.2172/1344760. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1344760.
@article{osti_1344760,
title = {An Improved Global Wind Resource Estimate for Integrated Assessment Models: Preprint},
author = {Eurek, Kelly and Sullivan, Patrick and Gleason, Michael and Hettinger, Dylan and Heimiller, Donna and Lopez, Anthony},
abstractNote = {This paper summarizes initial steps to improving the robustness and accuracy of global renewable resource and techno-economic assessments for use in integrated assessment models. We outline a method to construct country-level wind resource supply curves, delineated by resource quality and other parameters. Using mesoscale reanalysis data, we generate estimates for wind quality, both terrestrial and offshore, across the globe. Because not all land or water area is suitable for development, appropriate database layers provide exclusions to reduce the total resource to its technical potential. We expand upon estimates from related studies by: using a globally consistent data source of uniquely detailed wind speed characterizations; assuming a non-constant coefficient of performance for adjusting power curves for altitude; categorizing the distance from resource sites to the electric power grid; and characterizing offshore exclusions on the basis of sea ice concentrations. The product, then, is technical potential by country, classified by resource quality as determined by net capacity factor. Additional classifications dimensions are available, including distance to transmission networks for terrestrial wind and distance to shore and water depth for offshore. We estimate the total global wind generation potential of 560 PWh for terrestrial wind with 90% of resource classified as low-to-mid quality, and 315 PWh for offshore wind with 67% classified as mid-to-high quality. These estimates are based on 3.5 MW composite wind turbines with 90 m hub heights, 0.95 availability, 90% array efficiency, and 5 MW/km2 deployment density in non-excluded areas. We compare the underlying technical assumption and results with other global assessments.},
doi = {10.2172/1344760},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Feb 01 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Wed Feb 01 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}

Technical Report:

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  • This study summarizes initial steps to improving the robustness and accuracy of global renewable resource and techno-economic assessments for use in integrated assessment models. We outline a method to construct country-level wind resource supply curves, delineated by resource quality and other parameters. Using mesoscale reanalysis data, we generate estimates for wind quality, both terrestrial and offshore, across the globe. Because not all land or water area is suitable for development, appropriate database layers provide exclusions to reduce the total resource to its technical potential. We expand upon estimates from related studies by: using a globally consistent data source of uniquelymore » detailed wind speed characterizations; assuming a non-constant coefficient of performance for adjusting power curves for altitude; categorizing the distance from resource sites to the electric power grid; and characterizing offshore exclusions on the basis of sea ice concentrations. The product, then, is technical potential by country, classified by resource quality as determined by net capacity factor. Additional classifications dimensions are available, including distance to transmission networks for terrestrial wind and distance to shore and water depth for offshore. We estimate the total global wind generation potential of 560 PWh for terrestrial wind with 90% of resource classified as low-to-mid quality, and 315 PWh for offshore wind with 67% classified as mid-to-high quality. These estimates are based on 3.5 MW composite wind turbines with 90 m hub heights, 0.95 availability, 90% array efficiency, and 5 MW/km 2 deployment density in non-excluded areas. We compare the underlying technical assumption and results with other global assessments.« less
  • This paper introduces a technique for digesting geospatial wind-speed data into areally defined -- country-level, in this case -- wind resource supply curves. We combined gridded wind-vector data for ocean areas with bathymetry maps, country exclusive economic zones, wind turbine power curves, and other datasets and relevant parameters to build supply curves that estimate a country's offshore wind resource defined by resource quality, depth, and distance-from-shore. We include a single set of supply curves -- for a particular assumption set -- and study some implications of including it in a global energy model. We also discuss the importance of downscalingmore » gridded wind vector data to capturing the full resource potential, especially over land areas with complex terrain. This paper includes motivation and background for a statistical downscaling methodology to account for terrain effects with a low computational burden. Finally, we use this forum to sketch a framework for building synthetic electric networks to estimate transmission accessibility of renewable resource sites in remote areas.« less
  • The AMS is the only current instrument that provides real-time, quantitative, and size-resolved data on submicron non-refractory aerosol species with a time resolution of a few minutes or better. The AMS field data are multidimensional and massive, containing extremely rich information on aerosol chemistry, microphysics and dynamics—basic information that is required to evaluate and quantify the radiative climate forcing of atmospheric aerosols. The high time resolution of the AMS data also reveals details of aerosol dynamic variations that are vital to understanding the physico-chemical processes of atmospheric aerosols that govern aerosol properties relevant to the climate. There are two primarymore » objectives of this 3-year project. Our first objective is to perform highly integrated analysis of dozens of AMS datasets acquired from various urban, forested, coastal, marine, mountain peak, and rural/remote locations around the world and synthesize and inter-compare results with a focus on the sources and the physico-chemical processes that govern aerosol properties relevant to aerosol climate forcing. Our second objective is to support our collaboration with global aerosol modelers, in which we will supply the size-resolved aerosol composition and temporal variation data (via a public web interface) and our analysis results for use in model testing and validation and for translation of the rich AMS database into model constraints that can improve climate forcing simulations. Several prominent global aerosol modelers have expressed enthusiastic support for this collaboration. The specific tasks that we propose to accomplish include 1) to develop, validate, and apply multivariate analysis techniques for improved characterization and source apportionment of organic aerosols; 2) to evaluate aerosol source regions and relative contributions based on back-trajectory integration (PSCF method); 3) to summarize and synthesize submicron aerosol information, including composition, concentration, size distribution and (inferred) shape and mixing state in various environments and their regional and seasonal variations within the context of regional and global modeling; and 4) to quantitatively evaluate important processes in various atmospheric environments and during different seasons, focusing on acid-catalyzed SOA formation, new particle growth, and photochemical processes of atmospheric organic aerosols (i.e., SOA production and POA oxidation). We will also examine the correlations and compile the ratios between important pairs of aerosol and gas phase species using region-specific and season-specific correlations and as a function of photochemical age and compare them with the ratios produced by various models. To enable our collaborations with the modelers, we will supply (via a public web interface) AMS data and our analysis results for use in model testing and validation and facilitate the use of the AMS information to constrain calculations of radiative forcing. Model output and AMS measurements and derived parameters will be compared with a focus on regional variability of model/measurement discrepancies and their causes. Finally we will share results, insights and data mining algorithms through peer-reviewed publications, presentations/tutorials at conferences/workshops, and web dissemination of analysis results and in-house developed software packages.« less
  • In the duration of this project, we finished the main tasks set up in the initial proposal. These tasks include: setting up the basic platform in GAMS language for the new RICE 2007 model; testing various model structure of RICE 2007; incorporating PPP data set in the new RICE model; developing gridded data set for IA modeling.
  • Under this Agreement, NREL will work with the Participant to characterize wind resource assessment measurement systems needed for the design, construction, and integration of wind energy conversion systems to produce electricity for utility grid applications. This work includes, but is not limited to, research and development of hardware and software systems needed to advance wind energy resource assessment technology at speed and scale for use by electric utilities and wind power system integrators.